Friday Severe Weather

The SPC has us under a slight risk area for tomorrow and I think the evening hours are the favorable time, for a map visit Nick and I's blog Maryland Wx.

Merger...More Showers and storms.

I have teamed with Nick over at Maryland Wx blog, so the posting will be a bit less for me over here as that is now my top priority.

Now to the post as there are showers and embedded thunderstorms hitting Baltimore and Howard Counties right now. Expect 30mph winds, some lightning and thunder, and up to 0.1'' of rain in this group. I'll have info here and on MDwx tomorrow.

I'm Back and Severe Today

Hey, it's been awhile, had vacations and everything, but its Hurricane Season and Severe Weather Season, so I need to be here. The SPC has us under a slight risk for severe today with a 5% tornado(for us thats impressive), 15% hail, and 15% wind, but 30% around Dundalk and the 95 corridor north of Baltimore. You may be wondering if the sun is going to come out; well it won't today and that will help to somewhat cap the instability with lower temperatures. The CAPE values however still support the development of thunderstorms, and if we get a watch in our area, I expect that it will be a Tornado Watch if the threat remains as high as it is now. If anything breaks, I'll let everyone know.

Good Morning

Hello, there have been many school closings around the area with the snowstorm. I have more than 4 inches at my house and am expecting 7-8 inches. There is a very heavy, nearly blinding band coming in from the west. Reports of 2 inches an hour snowfall at Dulles Airport is now reaching Baltimore and Dundalk.The wind with the snow is creating near blizzard conditions as I expected throughout the area. Also, I received a report of 9 inches in Southern Anne Arundel County. Let the snow continue! :)

Heavy Snow Falling

Just wanted to let everyone know a Winter Storm Warning is in effect now until 2PM Monday. I expect 6-10'' in Baltimore, 8-12'' in Dundalk, and Locally in these areas 15'' is not entirely out of the question. Also, the wind will kick in soon and cause near blizzard/whiteout conditions when combines with the heavy snow. Stay tuned, as this is a Major Winter Storm. Schools will be closed tomorrow, about a 100% chance of that.

Good Morning, WINTER STORM WARNING

Hey, got up early for you guys. The NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING TO REPLACE THE WATCH. It says 4-6 inches in the western suburbs, 6-10 near Baltimore and along I-95 with 12'' possible east of there. Dundalk may see a foot. I have a eerly feeling, hopefully thats all it is. SNOW IS COMING :) :) :) Blizzard Conditions also likely tonight into tomorrow morning. Also, I picked up 0.8'' of snow, its to get you prepared, trust me. The Baroclinic zone setup along with where we get the deformation band will be huge in who sees the highest amounts. Also, the comma head setup looks to hit DC/MD especially hard. I will update later with progress on the storm.

Oh quick note, this may bust high by the NWS, I sure hope thats not the case.

HERE WE GO, STAGE 5 ALERT, GAME ON

Stage 5 alert, up to 13 inches of snow here per 00z runs of GFS and NAM. Local news stations are saying 3-6, Justin Berk is closer w/4-8. I think that I may bust high, so watch out but I now think 8-12'' is likely for Dundalk with upwards of 10 inches in the city itself. Near Blizzard Conditions are also possible tomorrow night. Please Please Please stay tuned. This is a significant winter storm, not just accumulating snow in my mind. Be ready for 6+ inches tomorrow night into Monday. Expect the NWS to upgrade the WSWatch for the Baltimore area, should be updated to a warning when you wake up tomorrow morning or around noon. The point and click forecast for Dundalk is for 4-9'' of snow.

STAGE 4 ALERT

Do't have much time, have soccer game at 9. Got the smallest break in between. Up to 10 inches of snow are possible in areas. I expect 4-7'' in Baltimore, with the Dundalk area getting 5-8''. It is going to be a significant storm. Also, watch out for some wintry mix tonight overnight. The NWS has us under a WSWatch for several inches of snow :)

I will try to have an update, and if I do, it will be no earlier than 10:30. Really sorry I'm so busy. Also, tomorrow night into Monday's storm could produce wind driven snow and towards the end of the storm and after, Blizzard to Ground Blizzard conditions. I am giving that a 20% chance at 4+ inches of snow a 90% chance. DUNDALK is near the bullseye. THIS IS PROBABLY THE ONE. I am excited, and not hyping. Stay tuned folks.

Hey Guys

Check out the HPC update on their website. Sorry I couldn't give a link to it, but it sounds to me the DC-BAL-(Dundalk) corridor may get a big winter storm. I will have dissection on this storm either tonight or tomorrow morning early. I have to attend High School Baseball tryouts at 9AM, soccer at 1PM and another soccer game at 9PM so I am very unsure about posting tomorrow. If this starts to look like more than the 3-4'' I expect now, which it is trending towards 6+'', I will get to you.

Models A Bit Off

As I informed you, the models were printing out all snow, and at my house its a warm 38 degrees. Thats unfavorable for snow obviously. Once a cold front passes, winds switch directionsm and this switch will bring in colder air in. I will put in my forecast rain until 10AM, then rain/snow until 12 maybe 1230PM, and anything left after that as a few rain/snow showers. I disagree with the models giving accumulation due to the warm ground, however, the precip out west looks healthy, so stay tuned and watch as it might accumulate. The most likely areas for accumulation are on grassy areas and shrubbery,

A few things

Good evening, folks. I am back:

18z NAM prints out 0.04'' of precip, equating to all snow, 0.4'' with 10:1 ratios. The storm was further east and is an outlier however by the HPC.

Now the GFS has trended further south with low development starting around Hatteras, I will really need to watch the secondary development. This run prints us out 0.9'' of snow, a little incher. The coastal puts in a bit more precip this run. However, 1.1'' is more likely as the run itself prints out 0.11-0.13'' of precip.

Heres the GOES energy currently: , and that is on line with the GOES run.

Another thing is the current pressure rises and falls, the GL clipper low is weakening and is instead of traveling NE like the models have said, has come to a near stop.

What that does by weakening the low is that the energy is easier to transfer and get going off NC, and develop a bit quicker.

Next up is our steering currents as of 21z:

This image shows the lead and backside vorts. Like what is being discussed in the AW forums, we need a deeper dig of the backside in order to get a GOM moisture connection. That would help the MD area a bit with a slight boost in precip. That would even moreso help areas to our north, who are expecting more of a storm out of this.

Now, on to the Water Vapor. Quick examinations on this show the trough is digging to the south somewhat and to the east and that is what we need for the moisture connection. Also, the digging more would help us set up a negative trough; the earlier the trough goes negative, the earlier the coastal develops.

Here is that WV image: , looks pretty good.

Also, to prove my GFS 0.9'' inches of snow, here is the BUFR soundings for 18z GFS: BWI Airport.


Now, finally, I wanted to post the 18z time frame in which the storm is affecting the region so you can see why I think it is more than 0.09'' of precip as snow, meaning 0.9''. It is the fine version and at 1000-500mb thicknesses, one of the most important layers, and the layer used by AW.com Met HM.


I will have more, and an update after the 00z NAM, even though that model is an outlier. Enjoy your evening, its beautiful out, just dress kinda warm :)

12z ECMWF

Hey guys, the 12z ECMWF is in. I can see us getting up to 4mm of precip, but am not sure. I know 3mm is about 0.11 inches of precip, so that is an up in Euro precip output for us no doubt from the previous runs. Stay tuned, I have to go somewhere from 3-6 though, so I may update and likely will update later this evening.

Little Event

Hey guys, been very, very busy. Expect more posting now though as I have some time opened this week.

The 12z NAM/WRF spits out 0.6'' of snow for the Overnight-Sunday Morning event.

The 12z GFS/AVN spits out 0.6'' of snow, with up to 0.02'' in ice pellets, meaning 0.1'' of those with the 5:1 ratio.

I can see us getting surprised on this one and I am going to give a 12z ECMWF update shortly.

Snow to Rain

Yeah, that looks like the scenario for the GL cutter tomorrow night. I think that the areas around Dundalk will get a 3-4 hour period of wintry precip, amounting to maybe a half inch of slush. However, north of the city, I see about 6 hours of wintry precip, maybe adding up to an inch or a bit more. I will update maybe tomorrow evening, if anything this is trending a bit colder, and any colder, could mean more wintry precip at the start.

Info about the dwindling snow possibilities this weekend also later.

Sorry Guys :(

Been out for awhile.

I will be the first to admit that I was off on my last prediction. I thought the precip initially would stick to the ground on the Tuesday storm. I underestimated how strong the warm air was and that prevented most of the snow from sticking.

However, I liked the little convective band that hit the area Tuesday Night/ Wednesday Morning. At my High School in the Tuesday storm we got 0.5'' snow and the banding gave us 2.4''.

Here is my weather alert for the unfoding pattern which has been posted on the EWx and AccuWx forums, at least Analysis 2: It seems as if the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistently plowing 2 consecutive storm systems from the West Coast eastward possibly having a significant effect on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in terms of winter weather.
As any model watcher would state, the trend this winter has been to take systems northward. But the deal in this new pattern is that the Northern Branch isn’t in full control, and the models have been realizing that. All of you people in Maine and the far west interior of the Northeast shouldn’t really think these are your storms. Also, in the past situations, models have taken a while to see the power of the dominant branch. However, as I said, they seem to be a bit ahead on the pattern this time.
As I look at the 12z ECMWF runs, I can see that the 500mb vort images are hinting at a retrograding 50/50 in a very good position for the possible 16-18 storm. Anyone that has studied past big snowstorms will realize that the retrograding 50/50 was a key factor. Also, in this situation, I see a –NAO, which in a lot of cases in the past has spit out a good snowstorm. I think having a –NAO for a while earlier this winter didn’t help us, may not play as much of a factor as it usually would in my thinking. To continue the positive factors, there is a nice split flow in place. Many of the models have been evident in showing this and I am optimistic on that factor. The split flow should be setting in later next week prior to these storms which is obviously a good thing.
It would seem that there may be one problem. You have the –NAO, split flow, Canadian blocking, then you have the western trough. Most hearing that would somewhat discount the possibilities of major winter events. However, this is being leveled out by the split flow, so I am not worried too much about it.
On the other hand, if the SPLIT FLOW DOESN’T MATERIALIZE, THESE STORMS MAY BE IN TROUBLE due to the western troughing.
Another thing that is also positive is that the ECMWF is looking good ALONG with the GFS in its snowstorm possibilities for the two events. Now model agreement 10 days out and that is what it is and take it for what you wish but the setup is there.

More in the future!

Forecast

School Delay Warning
School Closing Advisory, you could almost bank on a closing if the snow around the area moves in.

For Western Baltimore EAST

Columbia: 1-3''
BWI: 0.75-2.5''
Baltimore Inner Harbor: 1.5-3.5''
Dundalk: 2-4''
Parkville: 2-4''
Bel Air: 2-4''
Aberdeen: 2-4'' local 5''
Easton: 2-4'' local 5''
Perryville: 2.5-5'' local 6''

As you guys know, I hit the last storm right on the money, and expect nothing less this time. I may update about 00z GFS and radars.

12z ECMWF

A better run, a few inches of snow for us. It develops the secondary the GFS tried to last night and on the 06z this morning. That is promising to me, because I think the trough will turn negative and we may be a big snowstorm. I think 2-5'' is a safe bet, but there is a chance for an 8 inch snowfall. Stay tuned.

GEFS

As I expected, the 12z GFS was having trouble developing the secondary. I can say that is a possibility because the GEFS, (GFS Ensembles) are developing the secondary and giving DC/BAL a moderate snowfall. I'll have info about the ECMWF run once it comes up. Until then, pray for snow :)

Let's Get this Straightened out

Obviously, anyone who wants to say the ECMW is king, is a model hugger, it did trend west last night giving our area a 4'' snowfall. I am staying put with the possibility for a big snowfall. The 12z models are east with the storm, and there is a thought the storm is over. NOOOOOOO!!!!! Not even close, the setup is nearly perect for a nice snowstorm for the east coast I-95 corridor. My forecast only has a 10% chance of verifying, but AccuWeather is with me on this. I think the models are having trouble picking up the secondary, which I think will form along the jet, giving us the nice snows. It seems that HM from AccuWx thinks that is the problem also. Stay tuned, this is nowhere near close to being nailed down.

Here it is :)

Here is that 00z GFS snowfall map, unbelievable.

Unbelievable

00z GFS snowfall map buts us at 18-20"+, that would be a HECS for us, whats better is its 2 days out :)

WOW, WOW, WOW

What can I say the storm that looked out to sea since last night, now has shifted west on the 00z runs of the NAM and the GFS. These put BAL/DC in the bullseye giving the area 10+ inches of snow and howling winds(A MECS to HECS). I am issuing a PRELIMINARY STAGE 3 ALERT, preliminary because I want to see the ECMWF, anyone interested tonight at 1:30AM. Also, I am issuing an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH.
This may be an error, but looks to be a classic setup for a major-historic snowstorm in the area. Also due to the models now, if the ECMWF follows suit, expect a possible Winter Storm Watch or Blizzard Watch and expect that for me.

Sorry about the images, the program messed up, please click on them to see the proper view.

Thanks,
Ryan.

Nor' Easter Discussion and Analysis

Yesterday I spoke of the models being too far west and tracking over us with a lot of rain. Things seemed to have changed. HOWEVER, I need verification.

Hello again, and oh boy, I just don't know what to say. I think it is time to do a good analysis. I want to show you guys some models and their positions along with the vort's. It is very important.

Alright, we have a possible Major Storm coming next week. The setup seems to be a Miller A storm, starting in the Gulf of Mexico and riding up the coast. Here are some models:

GFS 00z For the Jan 30 run, ran night of Jan 29 :)


That started the east trend, now the 06z from 01.30.09

THAT'S 96 now 102

Now to TODAYS 12z 01.30.09 at its point thats its giving us the heaviest precip which is not that heavy.

Finally, THIS AFTERNOONS 18z run.
.

Alright, as you can see these models are agreeing more on a coastal track rather then the west of Apps or I-95 track thought to occur yesterday. Marlyand DC and VA are alive for a snowstorm along with DE and WV and PA very much so.

I WILL DISCUSS THE MODELS POSTED AFTER TONIGHTS 00z GFS, I have a reason for doing so. I will also likely do 500mbVort Maps.



I love it!!!

Did you say superstorm?

Yes I did folks!

Hello, its time for another set of storm discussions as we near a stormy period. Now I am aware of the models showing a storm near or exceeding the criteria for a Superstorm next week.
Blizzard of 2009 likely? Yes! Likely for places on I-95 south of Boston needing snow? Not looking so great! The deal is even with a negative NAO, negative AO, and neutral to very slightly positive PNA in place, there are the lack of a few things. Confluence is always important for storm to have its cold air and the AO being negative helps. The storms model timeframe shows the Bermuda high killer in the Atlantic Ocean and that is a bit west for the likelihood of an I-95 snowstorm. I think with the storm being modeled as deep as a sub 960mb storm is amazing. Some are asking me, well if the storm is sub960mb, wouldnt the temperature gradient lead it to the warm Atlantic ocean? Usually, the answer to that question is yes, and is a very viable solution for this upcoming storm, just not the most likely at this point. The mighty ECMWF model has this storm driving straight up the apps, which is a VERY unlikely solution. The NWS seems to think the solution of a storm along or east of I-95 is most likely at this time. I am also supporting that solution also. However, I am not favoring it to be east enough to give I-95 cities a large snowstorm. In this storm, the farther south you are in the east, the better chance you have at snow if you are not in the Interior. DC, MD, and VA are more likely to see some accumulation of wintry precip at this time than MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, and NH. I'll have MUCH MORE on this storm in the future.

There will be comparisons, expectations, etc. in the future!

NWS=Winter Storm Warning

The NWS has just went over to a Winter Storm Warning for DC, AA, PG, and southern BAL counties from the Winter Weather Advisory.

I am going from a WSW from my RFS/DWS to an *ICE STORM WARNING* for those counties, and keep the *WINTER STORM WARNING* for the counties North and west of the ones I put in the Ice Storm Warning. I have 2.7'' of snow and sleet in my area.

In the Ice Storm Warning I think .3-.5'' of ice is likely for the ISW for S BAL county, while .25-.4'' of ice for DC, PG, and AA counties.

10 AM Update

Sorry I'm so late folks, the deal is, all local schools are closed in my Alert area. Yesterday in my conference call with the NWS and Emergency Management, along with other high ranked people, I knew this storm would be healthy. Snows are accumulating, and I have 1.4'' at my house. The snow is falling moderately. Their is a break in the action for a short time to the west, but precip is redeveloping as I expected.

Dundalk: 3-5'' snow and sleet, .2-.3'' ice, 0.4'' rain
Baltimore County: 3-6'' Up to 7 north .2-.4'' ice, 0.3'' rain, 2-4.5'' downtown

More areas in my later update, this is looking healthy, and should surprise a lot of people

My Accumulation map

Key is as follows:
Green= all rain, 1+'' rain
Pink= Mix to rain, maybe 1 inch of slop, 0.5'' rain
light blue= 3-5'' of snow, then ice, 0.2-0.5, then some rain for a little while, 0.25 rain
pale blue= 4-7(looks more like 4-6 at the moment but 4-7) then some mix
yellow= 1-3'' of snow-mix then rain
----------------PURPLE LINE DENOTES ALL SNOW NORTH OF IT------------------
dark blue= 6-9'' all snow, locally higher
red= 10+'' locally over a foot
light violet= 5-8'' of snow


THIS MAP is a SREF/NAM/GFS/UKMET/GGEM/RGEM/DGEX/ My self Comp MeteoRAK
(I believe NOGAPS and JMA showed southern solution) I didnt see Korean, CARPS, GASP, or the other world models.

Scenario

Heres what we should expect, i think models are a bit warm, winds off the ocean will be not raising temps, upper levels intruded later Tuesday Night, may be hard to change surface to all rain Southern Baltimore county North and West. I think that the storm will go like this:

Tuesday(2-4 local 5'' snows) more north, S BAL CNTY N+W most snow. Snow from 5AM until 7PM occasionally for first event. High 29.

Tuesday Night(1'' maybe 2'' of snow and sleet) S BAL CNTY N+W transitioning to sleet and freezing rain(maybe light sleet accumulation, ice accumulation from 0.10-0.25''. Low 27. Icy Mix 11PM-4AM.

Wednesday(Freezing Rain to Rain) S BAL CNTY N+W, ice accumulation possible, Ice 4AM-7AM, rain 7AM to 1PM, then possible back end snow, snow accumulation possible.

My snow map will be out later possibly.

Alerts

Extended School Closing Warning- Schools are likely to close Tomorrow due to the likelihood of an early start to the snow. The school systems should also close Wednesday due to the icing problems Tomorrow night. Hopefully schools will close and not open at all Tomorrow to avoid an event like the Valentine's Day Massacre 2007.

STAGE 3 ALERT- Significant Winter storm, (for Snow, Sleet, and Ice)

Winter Storm Warning- My statement: Their is the likelighood of accumulating snow and ice for the area which will cause significant problems. This is for all counties in the Watch except for the District of Columbia, and (I will put PG and AA in it, may need to be removed.) There is a distinct possibilty that the models are underdoing the 2-4'' snowfall in the region and overdoing the warm air. I believe the snow and ice will not change to plain rain Baltimore North and West. There is a chance for 4-6'' of snow and sleet in the heaviest bands and over .2'' of ice in the heaviest areas. This will be a 2 pronged event. There is also a chance for back-end snow, more on that later. Expect updates. (3 AM Tuesday-9PM Wednesday)

I put out my Winter Storm Watch from the RFS/DWS

THIS IS NOT FROM THE NWS, this is from my RFS/DWS.

RFS/DWS has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* for snow and ice from Late Monday Night through Wednesday night. This watch includes the District of Columbia and the following counties in MD: Baltimore(N+S), Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, Montgomery, Frederick, Carroll, Harford, Howard, Washington, and Alegany and the independent city of Baltimore.
A primary low will track down through the south bringing snow and ice to the region as early as late Monday night. There is a chance that the snowfall may exceed 4 inches and the ice accumulation may exceed .25 inches. This will indeed be a high impact event and could cause extensive problems as precip will be long lasting. Travel may be made treacherous and during the storm people are advised to stay off the roads. A Winter Storm Watch means that a high impact winter weather event of snow and ice may have a significant accumulation and cause major travel difficulties. Stay tuned for more updates.

It has caught my attention that...

Just something quick that has caught my eye. I believe Baltimore and Dundalk will change to rain, but very briefly. What is weird is that the NWS and TWC along with WeatherBug, Accuweather, and local stations have the area in a wintry forecast. Maybe these organizations have caught onto something that we haven’t and I believe it is possible also that the models are not handling this even if we are this close to a storm. I think you must let the pros do their job and expect what the forecast says giving a bit of wiggle room. Hopefully, for the MD snow lovers, this pans out like the organizations are thinking now. That would be nice for you guys and hey, who doesn’t like snow? (Everyone likes snow, cough cough)

GEFS Ensembles, New Developments

Hmm, 12z GEFS ensembles prove my point. They are slightly south of the OP GFS and colder than it. They are also colder than the ECMWF which runs its 12z model at 1:30. Check it out as it will be very important. Anyways, the GEFS shows, snow-ice-heavy snow. The 850 is north of Baltimore but surface temps seem to support ice rather than rain. I believe the QPF from the Ensembles is tremendous and if we don’t get the rain, but rather ice in the middle, with that QPF, will produce a major ice storm/snow storm. (To sum it up, a big winter storm.)
The Weather channel along with the National Weather service point out wintry pictures for the Baltimore region.

All i can say for Baltimore, early indications are that models are at error a bit, and seem to take the storm too far north. Snow-Mix-Ice-Brief Rain(Maybe, later runs need to be seen)- Back to snow.

Expect a WSWatch from the RFS/DWS and a real WSWatch from the NWS out of BAL/DC tonight or early tomorrow.

Thats all for now, its Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.

Out to Lunch?

Now, heres the deal, don’t get upset because you think Baltimore is out of the storm now. We’re not, the 12z GFS solution is out to lunch in my opinion because it misplaced the highs. Believe it or not, the 12z has been the most inconsistent run of the GFS lately. As a matter of fact, it had a northern warmer solution yesterday only to have the 18z and 00z along with this mornings 06z looking south and good for us. Point is, I stay in a STAGE 4 ALERT and an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH for the area from Tuesday on and there may be another storm at end of the week. I am issuing a STAGE 1 ALERT for that meaning conditions are favorable and a storm is likely. Details will need to be cleared up.
In the meanwhile, a SIGNIFICANT to MAJOR winter storm could be in the cards for later this week as the 12z GFS has no support and I can bet its ensembles will be south.

QUICK CHANGE, BIG STORM COMING, DON'T BE SURE YET THOUGH

Hey guys, time for another update. It’s quick and a fast change. I am just gonna have to go higher once again and upgrade up to a STAGE 4 ALERT and to an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH as things are really heating up for MD. Check out the 00z GFS runs, wow. The reason for the STAGE 4 ALERT is because a snowfall up to 12`` with other significant winter precip. I will have a scenario out with possibilities later.

DISCUSSION 2 OH BOY

Alright we’re back again with another discussion. This will be a quick one as I have to go out, but here’s the deal. The 12z Euro gives DC a light accumulation while Baltimore gets a moderate one. The model may be going a bit too far north with it, and just keep note that I believe the 00z later at 1:30 tonight will be a bit south of the 12z.
On to the 18z GFS, what an interesting run. It seems to show a moderate-significant snowfall for BWI while DC does ok, with 3-6. The precip should go to sleet then ice with a significant accumulation of mixed precip. Sounds very wintry.
What has caught my attention even more are the 18z GFS 108-114 panels, showing another moderate snow event, with up to 6 additional inches for DC and BAL. This is just a quick model analysis.
Even if the runs aren’t 100% snow now, I see the potential that between Monday and Friday, there may be A MAJOR WINTER STORM with heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, with another event on its heals. The snow could reach 8`` with heavy accumulations of other winter precip. Its just a possibility, and im not speaking of accumulations. I am upgrading to a STAGE 3 ALERT and up to a SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH for TUES-WED-THURS.
I’ll have more, stay tuned.

Discussion from Yesterday

Forgot, to post it yesterday. When I mention yesterday, that means thursday.

Alright, as you guys know we have two/three shortwaves heading into the region during next week. The models have been trending a bit north and better for many areas. The idea that is presented is that the storm is a cold storm, that moves through a zonal flow and nearly straight across the Continental United States. A few days ago this storm looked good for I-95 and AccuWeather made note of the possibility of a storm with snow and ice with rain to the south of it. Then the models trended into suppression and gave VA south good snows and light snow into Maryland.
Not only was there suppression but there was also the fact that the low was being kept back into the western CONUS. This caused a slower storm and the precip being delayed. The meteorologists up and down the Eastern Seaboard disagreed with the energy being left back in the west and the low closing off near the CA/NV border.
Yesterday, the trend began shifting in the other direction and the cut off low idea has been delayed or even eliminated in the past runs of the GFS, GEFS, and GGEM. The idea now is a more progressive idea taking the storm out of the Rockies traveling over the MW CONUS and heading through the OV and Southern Mid-Atlantic. What I am beginning to see more clearly is that the models will begin to follow the normal winter track, and head more north than currently modeled.
As of now, the impact areas would be MD, DE, and VA but I expect the trend to take things north. Now not as north as other storms have trended, so I think the low will go over Central VA giving MD, DE, and PA snows with DC getting snow but S MD getting mixing with the snow.
What I would like to say is that there is a good potential for a moderate snowfall event with totals over 4+ inches next week throughout the region and due to that I will go into Level 1 Alert Mode. Also, schools may need to be altered, but delay/closings are unsure so I will only issue a Winter School Statement meaning schools may be affected but it is unsure how and the storm is still a bit away. That is all for now, I will keep you posted.

Forecast from Accuweather

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adcbin/netweather_v2/backgrounds/rainbow_630x440_bg.jpg ); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-color: #;' >

Weather Forecast Weather Maps Weather Radar Hurricane Center

New Key from the RFS

RFS Winter Weather Key, Have a seperate Severe summer weather blog.

I went very complex with this, these are my boundaries as for the Central MD area

Winter Storm Watch: 4+ inches out 36 hours
Winter Storm Warning: 4-6 inches+ <24 hours out
Heavy Snow Watch: 8+ Inches 36 hours out
Heavy Snow Warning: 8+ inches <24 hours out
Blizzard Watch: Snow, 25mph+ winds for more than 2 hours reducing visibilities, 36 hours out
Blizzard Warning: Snow, 25+mph winds for more than 2 hours reducing visibilites, <24 hours out
Ground Blizzard Warning: Extreme blowing snow causing low visibilites
Whiteout Warning: Snow falling at 2+ inch rates or blowing slow causing near 0 visibility.
Ice Storm Watch: 0.20 inches+ of ice out 36 hours
Ice Storm Warning: 0.20 inches+ of ice <24 hours out
Sleet Watch: 2+ inches of sleet 36 hours out
Sleet Warning: 2+ inches of sleet <24 hours out
Winter Weather Advisory: Winter weather causing travel delays, not meeting Warning criteria <18 hours out
Snow Advisory OR Blowing Snow Advisory: 1-4 inches of snow/blowing snow <18 hours out
Freezing Rain Advisory: Freezing Rain disrupting travel, up to 0.19 inches of accumulation
Freezing Fog Advisory/Dense Fog Advisory: Frozen Fog causing low visibilities/ or regular fog
doing the same
Lake Effect Snow Advisories/Watches/Warnings: Unlikely, but accumulations from lake effect snow varying.
Ryan Forecasting Statement: Possible Winter Weather Affecting the area

JAN 3 DISCUSSION, hmm.

Hmm, yeah that sums up this January 3rd discussion, it's junior meteorologist Ryan K here with some developments. As many of you know, the models are very unpredictable and for next weeks storm, I see that, and really here are my thoughts about the models.
The ECMWF model has now jumped on the boat of models showing a coastal redevelopment for the secondary system and seems to be trending to a more favorable solution for the area. What I think is interesting is that the NWS AFD has a possible ice storm for Most of central MD including Baltimore City, County even east of 95, well really all counties except southern MD.
Heres the link for that: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off.
I can say that is a viable solution. The 18z GFS this afternoon was like a blowtorch run, and I have put very little stake into that based on the thoughts from the NWS and the HPC. The deal is that a CAD event is very possible in my mind for the DC, MD, PA region and should be closely monitored. What I do expect is at least some wintry precip on the front end for the DC/BAL metro.
On Tuesday very early, I will be heading up to NYC and won't be back until late that evening so don't expect an update on Tuesday.

Basically though, with a SE ridge in place but being blocked by the -NAO and Greenland block. This helps the region and gives us more hope for wintry weather. The previous PV I described is being broken down a bit more than before which is also a good sign. Now I am by no means giving up on this storm.

As a matter of fact here is a post from Matt, a buddy from AccuWeather.com Forums, known as AtownWxWatcher. He found this on Eastern Wx Forums from Tip, a pro met. Here it is:

"I have been of the school all along that while I do believe the -NAO has numbered days here, the ECM's recent runs have been too fast to dismantle the configuration. That said...there may be a nod in the direction of conserving the field a bit longer. That does give some plausibility back to confluence at mid levels over SE Canada; it may be that the ECM is latching onto this idea now that it is crossing into the 4 day lead for the East Coast. Not sure I see the HP up north being weaker in future runs, and believe we need to see that to lift a warm front up the coast in this situation.Timing is also critical here. As the annotations show above, the 24 hours prior to the 96 hour chart, there is a nice cold shot migrating through the upper MA/NE states. This air mass comes in from a snow pack, too. I don't believe this air mass has had sufficient time to modify - certainly not thermodynamically (DPs). I believe the 500mb thickness migration of contours will be miss-leading as to what is taking place in the BL from about N VA on up the coast, on the western side of I-95 (approximately).We'll see how this plays out but we have already had on system up here in New England, where the mid-level centers went bodily west yet we captured primarily a frozen/freezing event out of it... It is not impossible that more ice could be available to the interior MA given this solution trend combined with synoptic awareness."

And this is his map analysis:
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id26093

Thanks Tip, and also, here is a useful link, http://atownwxwatcher.blogspot.com/, it includes no wishcasting and analyzes the patterns.

More regarding this storm later, this is Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.

JAN 2 DISCUSSION (and Model Discussion)

Sorry I've been gone so long, been very bsuy with work and vacation in between and the holidays but now I'm here. It seems as if I will only be able to posts when a storm is coming as I am always trying to find time to post.

But now to the weather.

The snow/rain showers passed through this morning and were reported by a few folks around the region. Some more showers are possible on Sunday moring and/or evening. For those of you, N/W of BAL/DC, you may see some freezing rain and a slight ice buildup for those areas. If the threat materializes more, I will include that in a post.

Now to the possible storm for next week, I was pretty confident in the idea of front end wintry precip and still am however the amount of it is dwindling. The models are showing(most of them) a primary cutting up into the GL. Now for those of you that don't know we have a good teleconnections setup. I will try to maybe post some, doubt it, tight on time, got practice. The deal is with a trending positive PNA in the pacific, and the Negative NAO and AO in the atlantic and east are favoring a good winter storm. This also throws the big bad SE ridge out of the picture. I know the SE ridge is a pain, but not for this one, however, it has brought in some backup.

The deal with today's storm that was supposed to develop a coastal was supression. That was due to an NAO that was too negative. The NAO level was positive causing many GLC's in November. What happened to the storm for today was that the NAO was too much of a good thing taking the storm farther east and developing any secondary far away from the E CONUS.

The NAO is now not as negative but that isn't the problem. But as I said about the SE ridge, it has backup.

A strong PV(Polar Vortex) is near the Gulf of Alaska. You may think, who cares about Alaska. Well it is a big deal. Although you can have big snowstorms in the east with a good block and a good Atlantic, it helps to have a favorable position in the Pacific. The PV is causing the ridge in the west to not gain strength in turn disableing the digging of a nice positive tilted trough in the east. What that means is any secondary that forms along the East Coast from the Primary that will most likely cut up the lakes will develop too far north most likely doing a few of these things to E WV VA, DC, MD, DE, and S PA.

---Dry Slot
---Not have a lot of precip left
---Not bring in enough cold air
---A few other events.

The point is that the models are showing an unfavorable situation for any more than a light accumulation from front end snow here in MD. I know that things can change and who knows what can happen with the inconsistency of the models.

One thing I have noticed is the ECMWF, also known as teh ECM or Euro is showing the west of the apps solution with no coastal redevelopment. With the good block, I can agree with the apps situation, but a coastal would have to redevelop, however with the Euro's track of a primary, a secondary wouldn't form in a favorable position.

There are no models supporting the ECMWF's primary-only situation. Now, the GFS, GEFS, UKMET, GGEM, (and I believe NOGAPS and JMA.) However, this long discussion can be sumed up with the words "We've got 4-5 days, calm down." Things can and will change. What matters is how they change.

The euro is consistent in it's thinking even if it is alone while the GFS varies on EVERY run.

I'll have more, this is Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.