JAN 3 DISCUSSION, hmm.

Hmm, yeah that sums up this January 3rd discussion, it's junior meteorologist Ryan K here with some developments. As many of you know, the models are very unpredictable and for next weeks storm, I see that, and really here are my thoughts about the models.
The ECMWF model has now jumped on the boat of models showing a coastal redevelopment for the secondary system and seems to be trending to a more favorable solution for the area. What I think is interesting is that the NWS AFD has a possible ice storm for Most of central MD including Baltimore City, County even east of 95, well really all counties except southern MD.
Heres the link for that: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off.
I can say that is a viable solution. The 18z GFS this afternoon was like a blowtorch run, and I have put very little stake into that based on the thoughts from the NWS and the HPC. The deal is that a CAD event is very possible in my mind for the DC, MD, PA region and should be closely monitored. What I do expect is at least some wintry precip on the front end for the DC/BAL metro.
On Tuesday very early, I will be heading up to NYC and won't be back until late that evening so don't expect an update on Tuesday.

Basically though, with a SE ridge in place but being blocked by the -NAO and Greenland block. This helps the region and gives us more hope for wintry weather. The previous PV I described is being broken down a bit more than before which is also a good sign. Now I am by no means giving up on this storm.

As a matter of fact here is a post from Matt, a buddy from AccuWeather.com Forums, known as AtownWxWatcher. He found this on Eastern Wx Forums from Tip, a pro met. Here it is:

"I have been of the school all along that while I do believe the -NAO has numbered days here, the ECM's recent runs have been too fast to dismantle the configuration. That said...there may be a nod in the direction of conserving the field a bit longer. That does give some plausibility back to confluence at mid levels over SE Canada; it may be that the ECM is latching onto this idea now that it is crossing into the 4 day lead for the East Coast. Not sure I see the HP up north being weaker in future runs, and believe we need to see that to lift a warm front up the coast in this situation.Timing is also critical here. As the annotations show above, the 24 hours prior to the 96 hour chart, there is a nice cold shot migrating through the upper MA/NE states. This air mass comes in from a snow pack, too. I don't believe this air mass has had sufficient time to modify - certainly not thermodynamically (DPs). I believe the 500mb thickness migration of contours will be miss-leading as to what is taking place in the BL from about N VA on up the coast, on the western side of I-95 (approximately).We'll see how this plays out but we have already had on system up here in New England, where the mid-level centers went bodily west yet we captured primarily a frozen/freezing event out of it... It is not impossible that more ice could be available to the interior MA given this solution trend combined with synoptic awareness."

And this is his map analysis:
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id26093

Thanks Tip, and also, here is a useful link, http://atownwxwatcher.blogspot.com/, it includes no wishcasting and analyzes the patterns.

More regarding this storm later, this is Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.