Another one

After the pretty good icing we had last storm, making my snow accumulations off, I can report .15 inches of ice at my house. It was a pretty good glaze and our first ice storm this year, albeit small. However, this next storm is going to do much of the same. All Maryland counties west of the bay (Cecil not in Advisory) and excluding counties of St. Mary's, Charles, and Calvert are under a *Winter Weather Advisory* from 10 PM tonight 'til `10 AM tomorrow for freezing rain. I also expect sleet to mix with the freezing rain.

Heres what I expect:
I expect the precip to start as freezing rain/sleet/ maybe a few snowflakes and continue through the overnight into around 9AM due to current indications. The sleet could accumulate to around a coating or a bit more in heavier bands.

Now for ice accumulations, I expect 0.1-0.2 inches of ice. A period of verga could help the temperature cool off. If it does, I would expect even more ice. An Ice Storm Warning could be possible and I think there is a better chance than most believe. I don't expect it, but if the cold air wins, some localized spots could get up to 0.4 inches of ice.

The criteria for an Ice Storm Warning is 0.25 inches of ice for the NWS in STERLING(BALTIMORE/ WASHINGTON DC.) I will update later most likely. Stay safe, happy holidays.

I'm going out on a limb

Now, the meteorologists have got to be noticing the cold air. I expected 36 as todays high instead of 39 by TWC, 39 by the NWS, 40 from WJZ, upper 30's from WBAL, and 38 from ABC. I was closer than all of them with the recorded high at my weasther station so far as 35 degrees.

A winter weather advisory comes into play at 11pm tonight lasting through 10am Sunday morning. Things are colder than forecast, so I am going to go out on a limb. Plus the QPF, accumulated precipitation looks a bit underdone.

I am expecting in Caroll county west: 1-2" snow and sleet, locally 3'', up to .15 ice
Baltimore itself and the county: Up to 1.5" snow and sleet, locally more north, up to .09" ice
South of Baltimore a trace or coating, maybe 1/2'' snow and sleet at most, .03'' ice.

I am actually forecasting more wintry than most noticing some trends. I have something to do for school and will be up late. Expect updates from me. Be back later!

Models Trending in Reverse

On Monday, Baltimore was looking at a Blizzard, and on Wednesday that stopped. The trend stopped, and wintry precip was dwindling. Yesterday, things were officially dead. But now, we have life once again. The GEFS models look great for some good wintry precip in MD, and the GFS is trending colder bringing the chance of more winter precipitation back in the forecast, so I'm here to tell you, there is a possibility of a somewhat good winter storm in some areas of MD. There will be a good chance of Winter Storm Watches when you wake up tomorrow in western MD. Now in Central MD, the city, and Baltimore County and a few other central counties, expect at least at a Winter Weather Advisory. Now I am doubting a lot of freezing rain, but there is a slight possibility of a Freezing Rain Advisory. Now if the 00z GFS tonight shows a continued cold trend, more southern low development, and a stronger low, expect Winter Storm Watches in central MD. I will have more on Watches, Warnings, Advisories, and Statements tomorrow morning unless anything is issued this evening. I suggest you check out the 00z GFS runs at 10:30 this evening.

Big Daddy

Sorry, its been a while. With school, I have been very busy and have been tracking a possible winter storm on saturday night into sunday. However, things are early so we don't really know yet. Be alert though on your hoiday travels. Stay safe, I'll update.

Coastal Update

Sorry I've been out for awhile. After this warn midweek rainstorm, the end of the week could be more rain, but with a bit of wintry precip also. Models previously showing good snows for the I-95 corridor are now showing mostly rain with some back end snows, however the 18zGFS ensembles are trending east and show big snows for the I-95. At this point, I see mostly rain with some back end snow. Stay up tonight for the critical 00z GFS. I'm thinking a bit east, good for the coastal areas in terms of winter precip. I'll update everyone on this.

Clipper possible

I know I mentioned the clipper before. It loks as if a trace to an inch, or maybe more will fall tomorrow night into early Sunday. I will have an update most likely later this evening

Sorry

Won't be posting for next few days, vacation. I am looking for a possible 1-2 inches of snow Saturday night. If anything comes up, maybe I'll try to make a post.
Also next weeks storms are having vast possibilities with extreme outcomes possible. Talk to you soon!

A quiet day

Nothing much to say vabotu today's weather. The deal is that the weather will be calm up until Thursday where a spotty shower is possible. For the long term, the cold will inflict the region by Friday. When I say cold, I am thinking a high for Baltimore Downtown around 37 degrees with suburbs possibly not getting above freezing. This cold should continue with a possibility of snow showers Saturday evening. I am watching other possibilities for winter weather starting next week. Stay tuned.

For Meteorologists, Winter Starts Today

Today marks the beginning of meteorological winter. This will be a quick post. I have work to do and am feeling a bit under the weather. The storm from the weekend gave just a few minutes of sleet to the region late in the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday. I did predict that and also I predicted an earlier start to the precip than other's predicted. For the rest of the week, a clipper may pass to our north with a few showers on Thursday, and to follow is temps not getting out of the thirties for Friday.
In terms of winter storms, I am watching a few possibly from the beginning of next week to 2 weeks out.

Something I've Noticed

Looking at the current temps around the region, I've noticed that with a light wind and mainly clear skies dominating since late afternoon, things are looking a bit interesting. With clounds moving in now out of the south, I can report that the temperatures are nearing the freezing mark and that there are strong returns on the radars I have looked at, the winter precip could come early. With moderate to nearly heavy precip moving to the northeast from central Virginia, I believe when it enters MD it will change to the winter variety and break through the clouds. As you know, if the precipitation is heavy enough, then it will break through and fall to the ground rather than light precip making virga. Also, this early precip will make it colder in the upper levels causing a cold air damming situation. I'll have more on the radar and on the precip possibly later.

It's Time

With the storm moving in overnight, I expect a lot of rain to affect the region. In this case, the storm is just too warm to support winter precipitation for an elongated period of time. At the onset, there is a chance for a wintry mix near DC/Balto. One thing I have noticed is that the temps around the Baltimore area are abotu 37 degrees and falling. TWC had the low at 31 this morning then made it 38 now they have 34. I expect a low of 31 near Baltimore with sleet and freezing rain at the onset changing to rain.

A coating of wintry precipitation is possibly north and west of Baltimore/DC with accumulation of snow, sleet, and ice possible in western MD. A Winter Weather Advisory is in affect for Washington, Allegany, and Garrett counties. There is a possibility that the winter precip spreads into the metros and in that case a freezing rain advisory/winter weather advisory is possibly for counties near Central Maryland.

Finally I expect a lot of rain throughout MD lasting into Moday morning with some back end snows and snow showers possible monday afternoon and evening. If anything breaks, I will post. If you get lucky, you'll see something other than rain tomorrow morning.

What's this? A 3rd Low

On the last frame of the NAM model, this is remarkable; This is what the map shows 84 hours out:












If this model were to verify for 84 hours which is Monday Night-Tuesday, then here is what could happen:
With the 540 or freezing line near the coast, light snow could span from virginia to southern md at the onset, with snow from the DC/Balto. metro up to Long Island. This could be a fluke run, but we'll see, wow would that be crazy!!!
On the storm for Saturday-Monday, I'm waiting for the 18z GFS to initialize. I'll have an update possibly this evening.

Here We Go

With the storm still a bit away, things are not clear yet, but I do have a forecast on the storm based on the conditions right now.

What it seems is possible is that the area near DC/Balto. will start as snow for a few hours, then go to mix then rain. Here is a preliminary map.















Green: All Rain
Light Violet: Snow to Mix to Rain
Violet: Snow to Mix with some Rain
Blue: Snow in mountains, some mix
Red: Serious Snow, A bit of mix if warm air gets
in(unlikely)

It seems at the end of the storm on Monday afternoon we could have some back end snows with accumulations. Mountain snows and upslope snows are almost a sure thing along with some lake effect. More on that later! Lets hope for a winter model prediction for all you snow lovers!

Model's Trending More

After looking at some of the runs from the 18z GFS models this afternoon, I noticed that the coastal storm is moving a bit farther east. You think it's gonna be all snow now for the I-95 corridor and that things are all great. Wrong! We do have the low trending east which is good for you snow lovers, however the clipper heading down from Canada is still there and if that stays in the forecast, then the warm air will stay and the big cities will see mostly rain. So we need that clipper to stay out of the way of the coastal and get the cold air in if snow or a bundle of winter precip is going to occur in the metros.

Right now, I believe that will happen and things will get very interesting by late tonight or tomorrow. Check out the model above and it supports my info. Thats all for now, might be back late after 00z GFS tonight. If not, I'll have plenty of updates tomorrow!

A bit on the models

Good afternoon guys, storm possibility update. I am noticiing a few things from looking at the models. It seems as if the storm that will track up the coast is moving a bit to the east which is great for I-95 winter weather. Also, the High to the north seems to be moving west. If this continues, things could change. We'll have to wait and see!

A helpful map

Not much to say, I forgot I wanted to post a map I saw on AccuWeather.com.

It's Looking Like a Coastal

Good Morning, Junior Meteorologist Ryan K here. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!! The models are starting to transition back to a coastal storm idea. It seems that teh EURO, GFS, and NAM are all in line with this storm.

I still won't make any accumulation forecasts, but I can predict where the precip shield will be. It seems like if the storm tracks up the coast, then snow will be almost a sure thing for snow in the interior. There is a possibility for snow in the DC Balto. metro area, but that will have to be veritfied.

I promise I will post again later updating this storm and its possibilities. Happy Holidays again. See ya!

A quick post

Before I sat down and ate, I checked with some of my advisors on AccuWeather.com. My favorite blog is Henry "Madman" Margusity and he does the Mid-Atlantic states blog. So anyway, Henry explained how the current models show heavy snows in the Ozark to the Ohio Valley to Great Lakes region. Despite, Henry stated that he believes a major coastal storm is a big possibilty. I agree with him on this so let's see what the 00z GFS models have to say later this evening. Thanks Henry, more on this soon folks.

A Little Surprise!

Watch out Mid Atlantic/North East. A little surprise may be headed your way late in the holiday weekend. Though the possibility of this storm is still 4-5 days out, the models are hinting at something. From the looks of the models, there is a possible Miller A or coastal rider that could strike the MA/NE.

Since there is still a bit of time until the storm I won't yet post any forecasts or maps. You might say a map from a a major meterologist but thats it.

I will be sure to keep you posted on this possible winter event.