Another one

After the pretty good icing we had last storm, making my snow accumulations off, I can report .15 inches of ice at my house. It was a pretty good glaze and our first ice storm this year, albeit small. However, this next storm is going to do much of the same. All Maryland counties west of the bay (Cecil not in Advisory) and excluding counties of St. Mary's, Charles, and Calvert are under a *Winter Weather Advisory* from 10 PM tonight 'til `10 AM tomorrow for freezing rain. I also expect sleet to mix with the freezing rain.

Heres what I expect:
I expect the precip to start as freezing rain/sleet/ maybe a few snowflakes and continue through the overnight into around 9AM due to current indications. The sleet could accumulate to around a coating or a bit more in heavier bands.

Now for ice accumulations, I expect 0.1-0.2 inches of ice. A period of verga could help the temperature cool off. If it does, I would expect even more ice. An Ice Storm Warning could be possible and I think there is a better chance than most believe. I don't expect it, but if the cold air wins, some localized spots could get up to 0.4 inches of ice.

The criteria for an Ice Storm Warning is 0.25 inches of ice for the NWS in STERLING(BALTIMORE/ WASHINGTON DC.) I will update later most likely. Stay safe, happy holidays.

I'm going out on a limb

Now, the meteorologists have got to be noticing the cold air. I expected 36 as todays high instead of 39 by TWC, 39 by the NWS, 40 from WJZ, upper 30's from WBAL, and 38 from ABC. I was closer than all of them with the recorded high at my weasther station so far as 35 degrees.

A winter weather advisory comes into play at 11pm tonight lasting through 10am Sunday morning. Things are colder than forecast, so I am going to go out on a limb. Plus the QPF, accumulated precipitation looks a bit underdone.

I am expecting in Caroll county west: 1-2" snow and sleet, locally 3'', up to .15 ice
Baltimore itself and the county: Up to 1.5" snow and sleet, locally more north, up to .09" ice
South of Baltimore a trace or coating, maybe 1/2'' snow and sleet at most, .03'' ice.

I am actually forecasting more wintry than most noticing some trends. I have something to do for school and will be up late. Expect updates from me. Be back later!

Models Trending in Reverse

On Monday, Baltimore was looking at a Blizzard, and on Wednesday that stopped. The trend stopped, and wintry precip was dwindling. Yesterday, things were officially dead. But now, we have life once again. The GEFS models look great for some good wintry precip in MD, and the GFS is trending colder bringing the chance of more winter precipitation back in the forecast, so I'm here to tell you, there is a possibility of a somewhat good winter storm in some areas of MD. There will be a good chance of Winter Storm Watches when you wake up tomorrow in western MD. Now in Central MD, the city, and Baltimore County and a few other central counties, expect at least at a Winter Weather Advisory. Now I am doubting a lot of freezing rain, but there is a slight possibility of a Freezing Rain Advisory. Now if the 00z GFS tonight shows a continued cold trend, more southern low development, and a stronger low, expect Winter Storm Watches in central MD. I will have more on Watches, Warnings, Advisories, and Statements tomorrow morning unless anything is issued this evening. I suggest you check out the 00z GFS runs at 10:30 this evening.

Big Daddy

Sorry, its been a while. With school, I have been very busy and have been tracking a possible winter storm on saturday night into sunday. However, things are early so we don't really know yet. Be alert though on your hoiday travels. Stay safe, I'll update.

Coastal Update

Sorry I've been out for awhile. After this warn midweek rainstorm, the end of the week could be more rain, but with a bit of wintry precip also. Models previously showing good snows for the I-95 corridor are now showing mostly rain with some back end snows, however the 18zGFS ensembles are trending east and show big snows for the I-95. At this point, I see mostly rain with some back end snow. Stay up tonight for the critical 00z GFS. I'm thinking a bit east, good for the coastal areas in terms of winter precip. I'll update everyone on this.

Clipper possible

I know I mentioned the clipper before. It loks as if a trace to an inch, or maybe more will fall tomorrow night into early Sunday. I will have an update most likely later this evening

Sorry

Won't be posting for next few days, vacation. I am looking for a possible 1-2 inches of snow Saturday night. If anything comes up, maybe I'll try to make a post.
Also next weeks storms are having vast possibilities with extreme outcomes possible. Talk to you soon!

A quiet day

Nothing much to say vabotu today's weather. The deal is that the weather will be calm up until Thursday where a spotty shower is possible. For the long term, the cold will inflict the region by Friday. When I say cold, I am thinking a high for Baltimore Downtown around 37 degrees with suburbs possibly not getting above freezing. This cold should continue with a possibility of snow showers Saturday evening. I am watching other possibilities for winter weather starting next week. Stay tuned.

For Meteorologists, Winter Starts Today

Today marks the beginning of meteorological winter. This will be a quick post. I have work to do and am feeling a bit under the weather. The storm from the weekend gave just a few minutes of sleet to the region late in the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday. I did predict that and also I predicted an earlier start to the precip than other's predicted. For the rest of the week, a clipper may pass to our north with a few showers on Thursday, and to follow is temps not getting out of the thirties for Friday.
In terms of winter storms, I am watching a few possibly from the beginning of next week to 2 weeks out.