Saturday, February 28, 2009
HERE WE GO, STAGE 5 ALERT, GAME ON
Stage 5 alert, up to 13 inches of snow here per 00z runs of GFS and NAM. Local news stations are saying 3-6, Justin Berk is closer w/4-8. I think that I may bust high, so watch out but I now think 8-12'' is likely for Dundalk with upwards of 10 inches in the city itself. Near Blizzard Conditions are also possible tomorrow night. Please Please Please stay tuned. This is a significant winter storm, not just accumulating snow in my mind. Be ready for 6+ inches tomorrow night into Monday. Expect the NWS to upgrade the WSWatch for the Baltimore area, should be updated to a warning when you wake up tomorrow morning or around noon. The point and click forecast for Dundalk is for 4-9'' of snow.
STAGE 4 ALERT
Do't have much time, have soccer game at 9. Got the smallest break in between. Up to 10 inches of snow are possible in areas. I expect 4-7'' in Baltimore, with the Dundalk area getting 5-8''. It is going to be a significant storm. Also, watch out for some wintry mix tonight overnight. The NWS has us under a WSWatch for several inches of snow :)
I will try to have an update, and if I do, it will be no earlier than 10:30. Really sorry I'm so busy. Also, tomorrow night into Monday's storm could produce wind driven snow and towards the end of the storm and after, Blizzard to Ground Blizzard conditions. I am giving that a 20% chance at 4+ inches of snow a 90% chance. DUNDALK is near the bullseye. THIS IS PROBABLY THE ONE. I am excited, and not hyping. Stay tuned folks.
I will try to have an update, and if I do, it will be no earlier than 10:30. Really sorry I'm so busy. Also, tomorrow night into Monday's storm could produce wind driven snow and towards the end of the storm and after, Blizzard to Ground Blizzard conditions. I am giving that a 20% chance at 4+ inches of snow a 90% chance. DUNDALK is near the bullseye. THIS IS PROBABLY THE ONE. I am excited, and not hyping. Stay tuned folks.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Hey Guys
Check out the HPC update on their website. Sorry I couldn't give a link to it, but it sounds to me the DC-BAL-(Dundalk) corridor may get a big winter storm. I will have dissection on this storm either tonight or tomorrow morning early. I have to attend High School Baseball tryouts at 9AM, soccer at 1PM and another soccer game at 9PM so I am very unsure about posting tomorrow. If this starts to look like more than the 3-4'' I expect now, which it is trending towards 6+'', I will get to you.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Models A Bit Off
As I informed you, the models were printing out all snow, and at my house its a warm 38 degrees. Thats unfavorable for snow obviously. Once a cold front passes, winds switch directionsm and this switch will bring in colder air in. I will put in my forecast rain until 10AM, then rain/snow until 12 maybe 1230PM, and anything left after that as a few rain/snow showers. I disagree with the models giving accumulation due to the warm ground, however, the precip out west looks healthy, so stay tuned and watch as it might accumulate. The most likely areas for accumulation are on grassy areas and shrubbery,
Saturday, February 21, 2009
A few things
Good evening, folks. I am back:
18z NAM prints out 0.04'' of precip, equating to all snow, 0.4'' with 10:1 ratios. The storm was further east and is an outlier however by the HPC.
Now the GFS has trended further south with low development starting around Hatteras, I will really need to watch the secondary development. This run prints us out 0.9'' of snow, a little incher. The coastal puts in a bit more precip this run. However, 1.1'' is more likely as the run itself prints out 0.11-0.13'' of precip.
Heres the GOES energy currently:
, and that is on line with the GOES run.
Another thing is the current pressure rises and falls, the GL clipper low is weakening and is instead of traveling NE like the models have said, has come to a near stop.
What that does by weakening the low is that the energy is easier to transfer and get going off NC, and develop a bit quicker.
Next up is our steering currents as of 21z:
This image shows the lead and backside vorts. Like what is being discussed in the AW forums, we need a deeper dig of the backside in order to get a GOM moisture connection. That would help the MD area a bit with a slight boost in precip. That would even moreso help areas to our north, who are expecting more of a storm out of this.
Now, on to the Water Vapor. Quick examinations on this show the trough is digging to the south somewhat and to the east and that is what we need for the moisture connection. Also, the digging more would help us set up a negative trough; the earlier the trough goes negative, the earlier the coastal develops.
Here is that WV image:
, looks pretty good.
Also, to prove my GFS 0.9'' inches of snow, here is the BUFR soundings for 18z GFS: BWI Airport.
Now, finally, I wanted to post the 18z time frame in which the storm is affecting the region so you can see why I think it is more than 0.09'' of precip as snow, meaning 0.9''. It is the fine version and at 1000-500mb thicknesses, one of the most important layers, and the layer used by AW.com Met HM.
I will have more, and an update after the 00z NAM, even though that model is an outlier. Enjoy your evening, its beautiful out, just dress kinda warm :)
18z NAM prints out 0.04'' of precip, equating to all snow, 0.4'' with 10:1 ratios. The storm was further east and is an outlier however by the HPC.
Now the GFS has trended further south with low development starting around Hatteras, I will really need to watch the secondary development. This run prints us out 0.9'' of snow, a little incher. The coastal puts in a bit more precip this run. However, 1.1'' is more likely as the run itself prints out 0.11-0.13'' of precip.
Heres the GOES energy currently:
, and that is on line with the GOES run. Another thing is the current pressure rises and falls, the GL clipper low is weakening and is instead of traveling NE like the models have said, has come to a near stop.
What that does by weakening the low is that the energy is easier to transfer and get going off NC, and develop a bit quicker.
Next up is our steering currents as of 21z:
This image shows the lead and backside vorts. Like what is being discussed in the AW forums, we need a deeper dig of the backside in order to get a GOM moisture connection. That would help the MD area a bit with a slight boost in precip. That would even moreso help areas to our north, who are expecting more of a storm out of this.
Now, on to the Water Vapor. Quick examinations on this show the trough is digging to the south somewhat and to the east and that is what we need for the moisture connection. Also, the digging more would help us set up a negative trough; the earlier the trough goes negative, the earlier the coastal develops.
Here is that WV image:
, looks pretty good. Also, to prove my GFS 0.9'' inches of snow, here is the BUFR soundings for 18z GFS: BWI Airport.
Now, finally, I wanted to post the 18z time frame in which the storm is affecting the region so you can see why I think it is more than 0.09'' of precip as snow, meaning 0.9''. It is the fine version and at 1000-500mb thicknesses, one of the most important layers, and the layer used by AW.com Met HM.
I will have more, and an update after the 00z NAM, even though that model is an outlier. Enjoy your evening, its beautiful out, just dress kinda warm :)
12z ECMWF
Hey guys, the 12z ECMWF is in. I can see us getting up to 4mm of precip, but am not sure. I know 3mm is about 0.11 inches of precip, so that is an up in Euro precip output for us no doubt from the previous runs. Stay tuned, I have to go somewhere from 3-6 though, so I may update and likely will update later this evening.
Little Event
Hey guys, been very, very busy. Expect more posting now though as I have some time opened this week.
The 12z NAM/WRF spits out 0.6'' of snow for the Overnight-Sunday Morning event.
The 12z GFS/AVN spits out 0.6'' of snow, with up to 0.02'' in ice pellets, meaning 0.1'' of those with the 5:1 ratio.
I can see us getting surprised on this one and I am going to give a 12z ECMWF update shortly.
The 12z NAM/WRF spits out 0.6'' of snow for the Overnight-Sunday Morning event.
The 12z GFS/AVN spits out 0.6'' of snow, with up to 0.02'' in ice pellets, meaning 0.1'' of those with the 5:1 ratio.
I can see us getting surprised on this one and I am going to give a 12z ECMWF update shortly.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Snow to Rain
Yeah, that looks like the scenario for the GL cutter tomorrow night. I think that the areas around Dundalk will get a 3-4 hour period of wintry precip, amounting to maybe a half inch of slush. However, north of the city, I see about 6 hours of wintry precip, maybe adding up to an inch or a bit more. I will update maybe tomorrow evening, if anything this is trending a bit colder, and any colder, could mean more wintry precip at the start.
Info about the dwindling snow possibilities this weekend also later.
Info about the dwindling snow possibilities this weekend also later.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Sorry Guys :(
Been out for awhile.
I will be the first to admit that I was off on my last prediction. I thought the precip initially would stick to the ground on the Tuesday storm. I underestimated how strong the warm air was and that prevented most of the snow from sticking.
However, I liked the little convective band that hit the area Tuesday Night/ Wednesday Morning. At my High School in the Tuesday storm we got 0.5'' snow and the banding gave us 2.4''.
Here is my weather alert for the unfoding pattern which has been posted on the EWx and AccuWx forums, at least Analysis 2: It seems as if the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistently plowing 2 consecutive storm systems from the West Coast eastward possibly having a significant effect on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in terms of winter weather.
As any model watcher would state, the trend this winter has been to take systems northward. But the deal in this new pattern is that the Northern Branch isn’t in full control, and the models have been realizing that. All of you people in Maine and the far west interior of the Northeast shouldn’t really think these are your storms. Also, in the past situations, models have taken a while to see the power of the dominant branch. However, as I said, they seem to be a bit ahead on the pattern this time.
As I look at the 12z ECMWF runs, I can see that the 500mb vort images are hinting at a retrograding 50/50 in a very good position for the possible 16-18 storm. Anyone that has studied past big snowstorms will realize that the retrograding 50/50 was a key factor. Also, in this situation, I see a –NAO, which in a lot of cases in the past has spit out a good snowstorm. I think having a –NAO for a while earlier this winter didn’t help us, may not play as much of a factor as it usually would in my thinking. To continue the positive factors, there is a nice split flow in place. Many of the models have been evident in showing this and I am optimistic on that factor. The split flow should be setting in later next week prior to these storms which is obviously a good thing.
It would seem that there may be one problem. You have the –NAO, split flow, Canadian blocking, then you have the western trough. Most hearing that would somewhat discount the possibilities of major winter events. However, this is being leveled out by the split flow, so I am not worried too much about it.
On the other hand, if the SPLIT FLOW DOESN’T MATERIALIZE, THESE STORMS MAY BE IN TROUBLE due to the western troughing.
Another thing that is also positive is that the ECMWF is looking good ALONG with the GFS in its snowstorm possibilities for the two events. Now model agreement 10 days out and that is what it is and take it for what you wish but the setup is there.
More in the future!
I will be the first to admit that I was off on my last prediction. I thought the precip initially would stick to the ground on the Tuesday storm. I underestimated how strong the warm air was and that prevented most of the snow from sticking.
However, I liked the little convective band that hit the area Tuesday Night/ Wednesday Morning. At my High School in the Tuesday storm we got 0.5'' snow and the banding gave us 2.4''.
Here is my weather alert for the unfoding pattern which has been posted on the EWx and AccuWx forums, at least Analysis 2: It seems as if the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistently plowing 2 consecutive storm systems from the West Coast eastward possibly having a significant effect on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in terms of winter weather.
As any model watcher would state, the trend this winter has been to take systems northward. But the deal in this new pattern is that the Northern Branch isn’t in full control, and the models have been realizing that. All of you people in Maine and the far west interior of the Northeast shouldn’t really think these are your storms. Also, in the past situations, models have taken a while to see the power of the dominant branch. However, as I said, they seem to be a bit ahead on the pattern this time.
As I look at the 12z ECMWF runs, I can see that the 500mb vort images are hinting at a retrograding 50/50 in a very good position for the possible 16-18 storm. Anyone that has studied past big snowstorms will realize that the retrograding 50/50 was a key factor. Also, in this situation, I see a –NAO, which in a lot of cases in the past has spit out a good snowstorm. I think having a –NAO for a while earlier this winter didn’t help us, may not play as much of a factor as it usually would in my thinking. To continue the positive factors, there is a nice split flow in place. Many of the models have been evident in showing this and I am optimistic on that factor. The split flow should be setting in later next week prior to these storms which is obviously a good thing.
It would seem that there may be one problem. You have the –NAO, split flow, Canadian blocking, then you have the western trough. Most hearing that would somewhat discount the possibilities of major winter events. However, this is being leveled out by the split flow, so I am not worried too much about it.
On the other hand, if the SPLIT FLOW DOESN’T MATERIALIZE, THESE STORMS MAY BE IN TROUBLE due to the western troughing.
Another thing that is also positive is that the ECMWF is looking good ALONG with the GFS in its snowstorm possibilities for the two events. Now model agreement 10 days out and that is what it is and take it for what you wish but the setup is there.
More in the future!
Monday, February 2, 2009
Forecast
School Delay Warning
School Closing Advisory, you could almost bank on a closing if the snow around the area moves in.
For Western Baltimore EAST
Columbia: 1-3''
BWI: 0.75-2.5''
Baltimore Inner Harbor: 1.5-3.5''
Dundalk: 2-4''
Parkville: 2-4''
Bel Air: 2-4''
Aberdeen: 2-4'' local 5''
Easton: 2-4'' local 5''
Perryville: 2.5-5'' local 6''
As you guys know, I hit the last storm right on the money, and expect nothing less this time. I may update about 00z GFS and radars.
School Closing Advisory, you could almost bank on a closing if the snow around the area moves in.
For Western Baltimore EAST
Columbia: 1-3''
BWI: 0.75-2.5''
Baltimore Inner Harbor: 1.5-3.5''
Dundalk: 2-4''
Parkville: 2-4''
Bel Air: 2-4''
Aberdeen: 2-4'' local 5''
Easton: 2-4'' local 5''
Perryville: 2.5-5'' local 6''
As you guys know, I hit the last storm right on the money, and expect nothing less this time. I may update about 00z GFS and radars.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
12z ECMWF
A better run, a few inches of snow for us. It develops the secondary the GFS tried to last night and on the 06z this morning. That is promising to me, because I think the trough will turn negative and we may be a big snowstorm. I think 2-5'' is a safe bet, but there is a chance for an 8 inch snowfall. Stay tuned.
GEFS
As I expected, the 12z GFS was having trouble developing the secondary. I can say that is a possibility because the GEFS, (GFS Ensembles) are developing the secondary and giving DC/BAL a moderate snowfall. I'll have info about the ECMWF run once it comes up. Until then, pray for snow :)
Let's Get this Straightened out
Obviously, anyone who wants to say the ECMW is king, is a model hugger, it did trend west last night giving our area a 4'' snowfall. I am staying put with the possibility for a big snowfall. The 12z models are east with the storm, and there is a thought the storm is over. NOOOOOOO!!!!! Not even close, the setup is nearly perect for a nice snowstorm for the east coast I-95 corridor. My forecast only has a 10% chance of verifying, but AccuWeather is with me on this. I think the models are having trouble picking up the secondary, which I think will form along the jet, giving us the nice snows. It seems that HM from AccuWx thinks that is the problem also. Stay tuned, this is nowhere near close to being nailed down.
Unbelievable
00z GFS snowfall map buts us at 18-20"+, that would be a HECS for us, whats better is its 2 days out :)
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