Sorry Guys :(

Been out for awhile.

I will be the first to admit that I was off on my last prediction. I thought the precip initially would stick to the ground on the Tuesday storm. I underestimated how strong the warm air was and that prevented most of the snow from sticking.

However, I liked the little convective band that hit the area Tuesday Night/ Wednesday Morning. At my High School in the Tuesday storm we got 0.5'' snow and the banding gave us 2.4''.

Here is my weather alert for the unfoding pattern which has been posted on the EWx and AccuWx forums, at least Analysis 2: It seems as if the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistently plowing 2 consecutive storm systems from the West Coast eastward possibly having a significant effect on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in terms of winter weather.
As any model watcher would state, the trend this winter has been to take systems northward. But the deal in this new pattern is that the Northern Branch isn’t in full control, and the models have been realizing that. All of you people in Maine and the far west interior of the Northeast shouldn’t really think these are your storms. Also, in the past situations, models have taken a while to see the power of the dominant branch. However, as I said, they seem to be a bit ahead on the pattern this time.
As I look at the 12z ECMWF runs, I can see that the 500mb vort images are hinting at a retrograding 50/50 in a very good position for the possible 16-18 storm. Anyone that has studied past big snowstorms will realize that the retrograding 50/50 was a key factor. Also, in this situation, I see a –NAO, which in a lot of cases in the past has spit out a good snowstorm. I think having a –NAO for a while earlier this winter didn’t help us, may not play as much of a factor as it usually would in my thinking. To continue the positive factors, there is a nice split flow in place. Many of the models have been evident in showing this and I am optimistic on that factor. The split flow should be setting in later next week prior to these storms which is obviously a good thing.
It would seem that there may be one problem. You have the –NAO, split flow, Canadian blocking, then you have the western trough. Most hearing that would somewhat discount the possibilities of major winter events. However, this is being leveled out by the split flow, so I am not worried too much about it.
On the other hand, if the SPLIT FLOW DOESN’T MATERIALIZE, THESE STORMS MAY BE IN TROUBLE due to the western troughing.
Another thing that is also positive is that the ECMWF is looking good ALONG with the GFS in its snowstorm possibilities for the two events. Now model agreement 10 days out and that is what it is and take it for what you wish but the setup is there.

More in the future!