A few things

Good evening, folks. I am back:

18z NAM prints out 0.04'' of precip, equating to all snow, 0.4'' with 10:1 ratios. The storm was further east and is an outlier however by the HPC.

Now the GFS has trended further south with low development starting around Hatteras, I will really need to watch the secondary development. This run prints us out 0.9'' of snow, a little incher. The coastal puts in a bit more precip this run. However, 1.1'' is more likely as the run itself prints out 0.11-0.13'' of precip.

Heres the GOES energy currently: , and that is on line with the GOES run.

Another thing is the current pressure rises and falls, the GL clipper low is weakening and is instead of traveling NE like the models have said, has come to a near stop.

What that does by weakening the low is that the energy is easier to transfer and get going off NC, and develop a bit quicker.

Next up is our steering currents as of 21z:

This image shows the lead and backside vorts. Like what is being discussed in the AW forums, we need a deeper dig of the backside in order to get a GOM moisture connection. That would help the MD area a bit with a slight boost in precip. That would even moreso help areas to our north, who are expecting more of a storm out of this.

Now, on to the Water Vapor. Quick examinations on this show the trough is digging to the south somewhat and to the east and that is what we need for the moisture connection. Also, the digging more would help us set up a negative trough; the earlier the trough goes negative, the earlier the coastal develops.

Here is that WV image: , looks pretty good.

Also, to prove my GFS 0.9'' inches of snow, here is the BUFR soundings for 18z GFS: BWI Airport.


Now, finally, I wanted to post the 18z time frame in which the storm is affecting the region so you can see why I think it is more than 0.09'' of precip as snow, meaning 0.9''. It is the fine version and at 1000-500mb thicknesses, one of the most important layers, and the layer used by AW.com Met HM.


I will have more, and an update after the 00z NAM, even though that model is an outlier. Enjoy your evening, its beautiful out, just dress kinda warm :)