JAN 2 DISCUSSION (and Model Discussion)

Sorry I've been gone so long, been very bsuy with work and vacation in between and the holidays but now I'm here. It seems as if I will only be able to posts when a storm is coming as I am always trying to find time to post.

But now to the weather.

The snow/rain showers passed through this morning and were reported by a few folks around the region. Some more showers are possible on Sunday moring and/or evening. For those of you, N/W of BAL/DC, you may see some freezing rain and a slight ice buildup for those areas. If the threat materializes more, I will include that in a post.

Now to the possible storm for next week, I was pretty confident in the idea of front end wintry precip and still am however the amount of it is dwindling. The models are showing(most of them) a primary cutting up into the GL. Now for those of you that don't know we have a good teleconnections setup. I will try to maybe post some, doubt it, tight on time, got practice. The deal is with a trending positive PNA in the pacific, and the Negative NAO and AO in the atlantic and east are favoring a good winter storm. This also throws the big bad SE ridge out of the picture. I know the SE ridge is a pain, but not for this one, however, it has brought in some backup.

The deal with today's storm that was supposed to develop a coastal was supression. That was due to an NAO that was too negative. The NAO level was positive causing many GLC's in November. What happened to the storm for today was that the NAO was too much of a good thing taking the storm farther east and developing any secondary far away from the E CONUS.

The NAO is now not as negative but that isn't the problem. But as I said about the SE ridge, it has backup.

A strong PV(Polar Vortex) is near the Gulf of Alaska. You may think, who cares about Alaska. Well it is a big deal. Although you can have big snowstorms in the east with a good block and a good Atlantic, it helps to have a favorable position in the Pacific. The PV is causing the ridge in the west to not gain strength in turn disableing the digging of a nice positive tilted trough in the east. What that means is any secondary that forms along the East Coast from the Primary that will most likely cut up the lakes will develop too far north most likely doing a few of these things to E WV VA, DC, MD, DE, and S PA.

---Dry Slot
---Not have a lot of precip left
---Not bring in enough cold air
---A few other events.

The point is that the models are showing an unfavorable situation for any more than a light accumulation from front end snow here in MD. I know that things can change and who knows what can happen with the inconsistency of the models.

One thing I have noticed is the ECMWF, also known as teh ECM or Euro is showing the west of the apps solution with no coastal redevelopment. With the good block, I can agree with the apps situation, but a coastal would have to redevelop, however with the Euro's track of a primary, a secondary wouldn't form in a favorable position.

There are no models supporting the ECMWF's primary-only situation. Now, the GFS, GEFS, UKMET, GGEM, (and I believe NOGAPS and JMA.) However, this long discussion can be sumed up with the words "We've got 4-5 days, calm down." Things can and will change. What matters is how they change.

The euro is consistent in it's thinking even if it is alone while the GFS varies on EVERY run.

I'll have more, this is Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.