Saturday, February 21, 2009
12z ECMWF
Hey guys, the 12z ECMWF is in. I can see us getting up to 4mm of precip, but am not sure. I know 3mm is about 0.11 inches of precip, so that is an up in Euro precip output for us no doubt from the previous runs. Stay tuned, I have to go somewhere from 3-6 though, so I may update and likely will update later this evening.
Little Event
Hey guys, been very, very busy. Expect more posting now though as I have some time opened this week.
The 12z NAM/WRF spits out 0.6'' of snow for the Overnight-Sunday Morning event.
The 12z GFS/AVN spits out 0.6'' of snow, with up to 0.02'' in ice pellets, meaning 0.1'' of those with the 5:1 ratio.
I can see us getting surprised on this one and I am going to give a 12z ECMWF update shortly.
The 12z NAM/WRF spits out 0.6'' of snow for the Overnight-Sunday Morning event.
The 12z GFS/AVN spits out 0.6'' of snow, with up to 0.02'' in ice pellets, meaning 0.1'' of those with the 5:1 ratio.
I can see us getting surprised on this one and I am going to give a 12z ECMWF update shortly.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Snow to Rain
Yeah, that looks like the scenario for the GL cutter tomorrow night. I think that the areas around Dundalk will get a 3-4 hour period of wintry precip, amounting to maybe a half inch of slush. However, north of the city, I see about 6 hours of wintry precip, maybe adding up to an inch or a bit more. I will update maybe tomorrow evening, if anything this is trending a bit colder, and any colder, could mean more wintry precip at the start.
Info about the dwindling snow possibilities this weekend also later.
Info about the dwindling snow possibilities this weekend also later.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Sorry Guys :(
Been out for awhile.
I will be the first to admit that I was off on my last prediction. I thought the precip initially would stick to the ground on the Tuesday storm. I underestimated how strong the warm air was and that prevented most of the snow from sticking.
However, I liked the little convective band that hit the area Tuesday Night/ Wednesday Morning. At my High School in the Tuesday storm we got 0.5'' snow and the banding gave us 2.4''.
Here is my weather alert for the unfoding pattern which has been posted on the EWx and AccuWx forums, at least Analysis 2: It seems as if the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistently plowing 2 consecutive storm systems from the West Coast eastward possibly having a significant effect on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in terms of winter weather.
As any model watcher would state, the trend this winter has been to take systems northward. But the deal in this new pattern is that the Northern Branch isn’t in full control, and the models have been realizing that. All of you people in Maine and the far west interior of the Northeast shouldn’t really think these are your storms. Also, in the past situations, models have taken a while to see the power of the dominant branch. However, as I said, they seem to be a bit ahead on the pattern this time.
As I look at the 12z ECMWF runs, I can see that the 500mb vort images are hinting at a retrograding 50/50 in a very good position for the possible 16-18 storm. Anyone that has studied past big snowstorms will realize that the retrograding 50/50 was a key factor. Also, in this situation, I see a –NAO, which in a lot of cases in the past has spit out a good snowstorm. I think having a –NAO for a while earlier this winter didn’t help us, may not play as much of a factor as it usually would in my thinking. To continue the positive factors, there is a nice split flow in place. Many of the models have been evident in showing this and I am optimistic on that factor. The split flow should be setting in later next week prior to these storms which is obviously a good thing.
It would seem that there may be one problem. You have the –NAO, split flow, Canadian blocking, then you have the western trough. Most hearing that would somewhat discount the possibilities of major winter events. However, this is being leveled out by the split flow, so I am not worried too much about it.
On the other hand, if the SPLIT FLOW DOESN’T MATERIALIZE, THESE STORMS MAY BE IN TROUBLE due to the western troughing.
Another thing that is also positive is that the ECMWF is looking good ALONG with the GFS in its snowstorm possibilities for the two events. Now model agreement 10 days out and that is what it is and take it for what you wish but the setup is there.
More in the future!
I will be the first to admit that I was off on my last prediction. I thought the precip initially would stick to the ground on the Tuesday storm. I underestimated how strong the warm air was and that prevented most of the snow from sticking.
However, I liked the little convective band that hit the area Tuesday Night/ Wednesday Morning. At my High School in the Tuesday storm we got 0.5'' snow and the banding gave us 2.4''.
Here is my weather alert for the unfoding pattern which has been posted on the EWx and AccuWx forums, at least Analysis 2: It seems as if the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistently plowing 2 consecutive storm systems from the West Coast eastward possibly having a significant effect on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in terms of winter weather.
As any model watcher would state, the trend this winter has been to take systems northward. But the deal in this new pattern is that the Northern Branch isn’t in full control, and the models have been realizing that. All of you people in Maine and the far west interior of the Northeast shouldn’t really think these are your storms. Also, in the past situations, models have taken a while to see the power of the dominant branch. However, as I said, they seem to be a bit ahead on the pattern this time.
As I look at the 12z ECMWF runs, I can see that the 500mb vort images are hinting at a retrograding 50/50 in a very good position for the possible 16-18 storm. Anyone that has studied past big snowstorms will realize that the retrograding 50/50 was a key factor. Also, in this situation, I see a –NAO, which in a lot of cases in the past has spit out a good snowstorm. I think having a –NAO for a while earlier this winter didn’t help us, may not play as much of a factor as it usually would in my thinking. To continue the positive factors, there is a nice split flow in place. Many of the models have been evident in showing this and I am optimistic on that factor. The split flow should be setting in later next week prior to these storms which is obviously a good thing.
It would seem that there may be one problem. You have the –NAO, split flow, Canadian blocking, then you have the western trough. Most hearing that would somewhat discount the possibilities of major winter events. However, this is being leveled out by the split flow, so I am not worried too much about it.
On the other hand, if the SPLIT FLOW DOESN’T MATERIALIZE, THESE STORMS MAY BE IN TROUBLE due to the western troughing.
Another thing that is also positive is that the ECMWF is looking good ALONG with the GFS in its snowstorm possibilities for the two events. Now model agreement 10 days out and that is what it is and take it for what you wish but the setup is there.
More in the future!
Monday, February 2, 2009
Forecast
School Delay Warning
School Closing Advisory, you could almost bank on a closing if the snow around the area moves in.
For Western Baltimore EAST
Columbia: 1-3''
BWI: 0.75-2.5''
Baltimore Inner Harbor: 1.5-3.5''
Dundalk: 2-4''
Parkville: 2-4''
Bel Air: 2-4''
Aberdeen: 2-4'' local 5''
Easton: 2-4'' local 5''
Perryville: 2.5-5'' local 6''
As you guys know, I hit the last storm right on the money, and expect nothing less this time. I may update about 00z GFS and radars.
School Closing Advisory, you could almost bank on a closing if the snow around the area moves in.
For Western Baltimore EAST
Columbia: 1-3''
BWI: 0.75-2.5''
Baltimore Inner Harbor: 1.5-3.5''
Dundalk: 2-4''
Parkville: 2-4''
Bel Air: 2-4''
Aberdeen: 2-4'' local 5''
Easton: 2-4'' local 5''
Perryville: 2.5-5'' local 6''
As you guys know, I hit the last storm right on the money, and expect nothing less this time. I may update about 00z GFS and radars.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
12z ECMWF
A better run, a few inches of snow for us. It develops the secondary the GFS tried to last night and on the 06z this morning. That is promising to me, because I think the trough will turn negative and we may be a big snowstorm. I think 2-5'' is a safe bet, but there is a chance for an 8 inch snowfall. Stay tuned.
GEFS
As I expected, the 12z GFS was having trouble developing the secondary. I can say that is a possibility because the GEFS, (GFS Ensembles) are developing the secondary and giving DC/BAL a moderate snowfall. I'll have info about the ECMWF run once it comes up. Until then, pray for snow :)
Let's Get this Straightened out
Obviously, anyone who wants to say the ECMW is king, is a model hugger, it did trend west last night giving our area a 4'' snowfall. I am staying put with the possibility for a big snowfall. The 12z models are east with the storm, and there is a thought the storm is over. NOOOOOOO!!!!! Not even close, the setup is nearly perect for a nice snowstorm for the east coast I-95 corridor. My forecast only has a 10% chance of verifying, but AccuWeather is with me on this. I think the models are having trouble picking up the secondary, which I think will form along the jet, giving us the nice snows. It seems that HM from AccuWx thinks that is the problem also. Stay tuned, this is nowhere near close to being nailed down.
Unbelievable
00z GFS snowfall map buts us at 18-20"+, that would be a HECS for us, whats better is its 2 days out :)
Saturday, January 31, 2009
WOW, WOW, WOW
What can I say the storm that looked out to sea since last night, now has shifted west on the 00z runs of the NAM and the GFS. These put BAL/DC in the bullseye giving the area 10+ inches of snow and howling winds(A MECS to HECS). I am issuing a PRELIMINARY STAGE 3 ALERT, preliminary because I want to see the ECMWF, anyone interested tonight at 1:30AM. Also, I am issuing an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH.
This may be an error, but looks to be a classic setup for a major-historic snowstorm in the area. Also due to the models now, if the ECMWF follows suit, expect a possible Winter Storm Watch or Blizzard Watch and expect that for me.
This may be an error, but looks to be a classic setup for a major-historic snowstorm in the area. Also due to the models now, if the ECMWF follows suit, expect a possible Winter Storm Watch or Blizzard Watch and expect that for me.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Nor' Easter Discussion and Analysis
Yesterday I spoke of the models being too far west and tracking over us with a lot of rain. Things seemed to have changed. HOWEVER, I need verification.
Hello again, and oh boy, I just don't know what to say. I think it is time to do a good analysis. I want to show you guys some models and their positions along with the vort's. It is very important.
Alright, we have a possible Major Storm coming next week. The setup seems to be a Miller A storm, starting in the Gulf of Mexico and riding up the coast. Here are some models:
GFS 00z For the Jan 30 run, ran night of Jan 29 :)
That started the east trend, now the 06z from 01.30.09
THAT'S 96 now 102
Now to TODAYS 12z 01.30.09 at its point thats its giving us the heaviest precip which is not that heavy.
Finally, THIS AFTERNOONS 18z run.
.
Alright, as you can see these models are agreeing more on a coastal track rather then the west of Apps or I-95 track thought to occur yesterday. Marlyand DC and VA are alive for a snowstorm along with DE and WV and PA very much so.
I WILL DISCUSS THE MODELS POSTED AFTER TONIGHTS 00z GFS, I have a reason for doing so. I will also likely do 500mbVort Maps.
I love it!!!
Hello again, and oh boy, I just don't know what to say. I think it is time to do a good analysis. I want to show you guys some models and their positions along with the vort's. It is very important.
Alright, we have a possible Major Storm coming next week. The setup seems to be a Miller A storm, starting in the Gulf of Mexico and riding up the coast. Here are some models:
GFS 00z For the Jan 30 run, ran night of Jan 29 :)
That started the east trend, now the 06z from 01.30.09
THAT'S 96 now 102
Now to TODAYS 12z 01.30.09 at its point thats its giving us the heaviest precip which is not that heavy.
Finally, THIS AFTERNOONS 18z run.
. Alright, as you can see these models are agreeing more on a coastal track rather then the west of Apps or I-95 track thought to occur yesterday. Marlyand DC and VA are alive for a snowstorm along with DE and WV and PA very much so.
I WILL DISCUSS THE MODELS POSTED AFTER TONIGHTS 00z GFS, I have a reason for doing so. I will also likely do 500mbVort Maps.
I love it!!!
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Did you say superstorm?
Yes I did folks!
Hello, its time for another set of storm discussions as we near a stormy period. Now I am aware of the models showing a storm near or exceeding the criteria for a Superstorm next week.
Blizzard of 2009 likely? Yes! Likely for places on I-95 south of Boston needing snow? Not looking so great! The deal is even with a negative NAO, negative AO, and neutral to very slightly positive PNA in place, there are the lack of a few things. Confluence is always important for storm to have its cold air and the AO being negative helps. The storms model timeframe shows the Bermuda high killer in the Atlantic Ocean and that is a bit west for the likelihood of an I-95 snowstorm. I think with the storm being modeled as deep as a sub 960mb storm is amazing. Some are asking me, well if the storm is sub960mb, wouldnt the temperature gradient lead it to the warm Atlantic ocean? Usually, the answer to that question is yes, and is a very viable solution for this upcoming storm, just not the most likely at this point. The mighty ECMWF model has this storm driving straight up the apps, which is a VERY unlikely solution. The NWS seems to think the solution of a storm along or east of I-95 is most likely at this time. I am also supporting that solution also. However, I am not favoring it to be east enough to give I-95 cities a large snowstorm. In this storm, the farther south you are in the east, the better chance you have at snow if you are not in the Interior. DC, MD, and VA are more likely to see some accumulation of wintry precip at this time than MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, and NH. I'll have MUCH MORE on this storm in the future.
There will be comparisons, expectations, etc. in the future!
Hello, its time for another set of storm discussions as we near a stormy period. Now I am aware of the models showing a storm near or exceeding the criteria for a Superstorm next week.
Blizzard of 2009 likely? Yes! Likely for places on I-95 south of Boston needing snow? Not looking so great! The deal is even with a negative NAO, negative AO, and neutral to very slightly positive PNA in place, there are the lack of a few things. Confluence is always important for storm to have its cold air and the AO being negative helps. The storms model timeframe shows the Bermuda high killer in the Atlantic Ocean and that is a bit west for the likelihood of an I-95 snowstorm. I think with the storm being modeled as deep as a sub 960mb storm is amazing. Some are asking me, well if the storm is sub960mb, wouldnt the temperature gradient lead it to the warm Atlantic ocean? Usually, the answer to that question is yes, and is a very viable solution for this upcoming storm, just not the most likely at this point. The mighty ECMWF model has this storm driving straight up the apps, which is a VERY unlikely solution. The NWS seems to think the solution of a storm along or east of I-95 is most likely at this time. I am also supporting that solution also. However, I am not favoring it to be east enough to give I-95 cities a large snowstorm. In this storm, the farther south you are in the east, the better chance you have at snow if you are not in the Interior. DC, MD, and VA are more likely to see some accumulation of wintry precip at this time than MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, and NH. I'll have MUCH MORE on this storm in the future.
There will be comparisons, expectations, etc. in the future!
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
NWS=Winter Storm Warning
The NWS has just went over to a Winter Storm Warning for DC, AA, PG, and southern BAL counties from the Winter Weather Advisory.
I am going from a WSW from my RFS/DWS to an *ICE STORM WARNING* for those counties, and keep the *WINTER STORM WARNING* for the counties North and west of the ones I put in the Ice Storm Warning. I have 2.7'' of snow and sleet in my area.
In the Ice Storm Warning I think .3-.5'' of ice is likely for the ISW for S BAL county, while .25-.4'' of ice for DC, PG, and AA counties.
I am going from a WSW from my RFS/DWS to an *ICE STORM WARNING* for those counties, and keep the *WINTER STORM WARNING* for the counties North and west of the ones I put in the Ice Storm Warning. I have 2.7'' of snow and sleet in my area.
In the Ice Storm Warning I think .3-.5'' of ice is likely for the ISW for S BAL county, while .25-.4'' of ice for DC, PG, and AA counties.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
