Heavy Snow Falling

Just wanted to let everyone know a Winter Storm Warning is in effect now until 2PM Monday. I expect 6-10'' in Baltimore, 8-12'' in Dundalk, and Locally in these areas 15'' is not entirely out of the question. Also, the wind will kick in soon and cause near blizzard/whiteout conditions when combines with the heavy snow. Stay tuned, as this is a Major Winter Storm. Schools will be closed tomorrow, about a 100% chance of that.

STAGE 4 ALERT

Do't have much time, have soccer game at 9. Got the smallest break in between. Up to 10 inches of snow are possible in areas. I expect 4-7'' in Baltimore, with the Dundalk area getting 5-8''. It is going to be a significant storm. Also, watch out for some wintry mix tonight overnight. The NWS has us under a WSWatch for several inches of snow :)

I will try to have an update, and if I do, it will be no earlier than 10:30. Really sorry I'm so busy. Also, tomorrow night into Monday's storm could produce wind driven snow and towards the end of the storm and after, Blizzard to Ground Blizzard conditions. I am giving that a 20% chance at 4+ inches of snow a 90% chance. DUNDALK is near the bullseye. THIS IS PROBABLY THE ONE. I am excited, and not hyping. Stay tuned folks.

Snow to Rain

Yeah, that looks like the scenario for the GL cutter tomorrow night. I think that the areas around Dundalk will get a 3-4 hour period of wintry precip, amounting to maybe a half inch of slush. However, north of the city, I see about 6 hours of wintry precip, maybe adding up to an inch or a bit more. I will update maybe tomorrow evening, if anything this is trending a bit colder, and any colder, could mean more wintry precip at the start.

Info about the dwindling snow possibilities this weekend also later.

Forecast

School Delay Warning
School Closing Advisory, you could almost bank on a closing if the snow around the area moves in.

For Western Baltimore EAST

Columbia: 1-3''
BWI: 0.75-2.5''
Baltimore Inner Harbor: 1.5-3.5''
Dundalk: 2-4''
Parkville: 2-4''
Bel Air: 2-4''
Aberdeen: 2-4'' local 5''
Easton: 2-4'' local 5''
Perryville: 2.5-5'' local 6''

As you guys know, I hit the last storm right on the money, and expect nothing less this time. I may update about 00z GFS and radars.

NWS=Winter Storm Warning

The NWS has just went over to a Winter Storm Warning for DC, AA, PG, and southern BAL counties from the Winter Weather Advisory.

I am going from a WSW from my RFS/DWS to an *ICE STORM WARNING* for those counties, and keep the *WINTER STORM WARNING* for the counties North and west of the ones I put in the Ice Storm Warning. I have 2.7'' of snow and sleet in my area.

In the Ice Storm Warning I think .3-.5'' of ice is likely for the ISW for S BAL county, while .25-.4'' of ice for DC, PG, and AA counties.

10 AM Update

Sorry I'm so late folks, the deal is, all local schools are closed in my Alert area. Yesterday in my conference call with the NWS and Emergency Management, along with other high ranked people, I knew this storm would be healthy. Snows are accumulating, and I have 1.4'' at my house. The snow is falling moderately. Their is a break in the action for a short time to the west, but precip is redeveloping as I expected.

Dundalk: 3-5'' snow and sleet, .2-.3'' ice, 0.4'' rain
Baltimore County: 3-6'' Up to 7 north .2-.4'' ice, 0.3'' rain, 2-4.5'' downtown

More areas in my later update, this is looking healthy, and should surprise a lot of people

Scenario

Heres what we should expect, i think models are a bit warm, winds off the ocean will be not raising temps, upper levels intruded later Tuesday Night, may be hard to change surface to all rain Southern Baltimore county North and West. I think that the storm will go like this:

Tuesday(2-4 local 5'' snows) more north, S BAL CNTY N+W most snow. Snow from 5AM until 7PM occasionally for first event. High 29.

Tuesday Night(1'' maybe 2'' of snow and sleet) S BAL CNTY N+W transitioning to sleet and freezing rain(maybe light sleet accumulation, ice accumulation from 0.10-0.25''. Low 27. Icy Mix 11PM-4AM.

Wednesday(Freezing Rain to Rain) S BAL CNTY N+W, ice accumulation possible, Ice 4AM-7AM, rain 7AM to 1PM, then possible back end snow, snow accumulation possible.

My snow map will be out later possibly.

Alerts

Extended School Closing Warning- Schools are likely to close Tomorrow due to the likelihood of an early start to the snow. The school systems should also close Wednesday due to the icing problems Tomorrow night. Hopefully schools will close and not open at all Tomorrow to avoid an event like the Valentine's Day Massacre 2007.

STAGE 3 ALERT- Significant Winter storm, (for Snow, Sleet, and Ice)

Winter Storm Warning- My statement: Their is the likelighood of accumulating snow and ice for the area which will cause significant problems. This is for all counties in the Watch except for the District of Columbia, and (I will put PG and AA in it, may need to be removed.) There is a distinct possibilty that the models are underdoing the 2-4'' snowfall in the region and overdoing the warm air. I believe the snow and ice will not change to plain rain Baltimore North and West. There is a chance for 4-6'' of snow and sleet in the heaviest bands and over .2'' of ice in the heaviest areas. This will be a 2 pronged event. There is also a chance for back-end snow, more on that later. Expect updates. (3 AM Tuesday-9PM Wednesday)

I'm going out on a limb

Now, the meteorologists have got to be noticing the cold air. I expected 36 as todays high instead of 39 by TWC, 39 by the NWS, 40 from WJZ, upper 30's from WBAL, and 38 from ABC. I was closer than all of them with the recorded high at my weasther station so far as 35 degrees.

A winter weather advisory comes into play at 11pm tonight lasting through 10am Sunday morning. Things are colder than forecast, so I am going to go out on a limb. Plus the QPF, accumulated precipitation looks a bit underdone.

I am expecting in Caroll county west: 1-2" snow and sleet, locally 3'', up to .15 ice
Baltimore itself and the county: Up to 1.5" snow and sleet, locally more north, up to .09" ice
South of Baltimore a trace or coating, maybe 1/2'' snow and sleet at most, .03'' ice.

I am actually forecasting more wintry than most noticing some trends. I have something to do for school and will be up late. Expect updates from me. Be back later!