Scenario

Heres what we should expect, i think models are a bit warm, winds off the ocean will be not raising temps, upper levels intruded later Tuesday Night, may be hard to change surface to all rain Southern Baltimore county North and West. I think that the storm will go like this:

Tuesday(2-4 local 5'' snows) more north, S BAL CNTY N+W most snow. Snow from 5AM until 7PM occasionally for first event. High 29.

Tuesday Night(1'' maybe 2'' of snow and sleet) S BAL CNTY N+W transitioning to sleet and freezing rain(maybe light sleet accumulation, ice accumulation from 0.10-0.25''. Low 27. Icy Mix 11PM-4AM.

Wednesday(Freezing Rain to Rain) S BAL CNTY N+W, ice accumulation possible, Ice 4AM-7AM, rain 7AM to 1PM, then possible back end snow, snow accumulation possible.

My snow map will be out later possibly.

GEFS Ensembles, New Developments

Hmm, 12z GEFS ensembles prove my point. They are slightly south of the OP GFS and colder than it. They are also colder than the ECMWF which runs its 12z model at 1:30. Check it out as it will be very important. Anyways, the GEFS shows, snow-ice-heavy snow. The 850 is north of Baltimore but surface temps seem to support ice rather than rain. I believe the QPF from the Ensembles is tremendous and if we don’t get the rain, but rather ice in the middle, with that QPF, will produce a major ice storm/snow storm. (To sum it up, a big winter storm.)
The Weather channel along with the National Weather service point out wintry pictures for the Baltimore region.

All i can say for Baltimore, early indications are that models are at error a bit, and seem to take the storm too far north. Snow-Mix-Ice-Brief Rain(Maybe, later runs need to be seen)- Back to snow.

Expect a WSWatch from the RFS/DWS and a real WSWatch from the NWS out of BAL/DC tonight or early tomorrow.

Thats all for now, its Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.