Sorry Guys :(

Been out for awhile.

I will be the first to admit that I was off on my last prediction. I thought the precip initially would stick to the ground on the Tuesday storm. I underestimated how strong the warm air was and that prevented most of the snow from sticking.

However, I liked the little convective band that hit the area Tuesday Night/ Wednesday Morning. At my High School in the Tuesday storm we got 0.5'' snow and the banding gave us 2.4''.

Here is my weather alert for the unfoding pattern which has been posted on the EWx and AccuWx forums, at least Analysis 2: It seems as if the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistently plowing 2 consecutive storm systems from the West Coast eastward possibly having a significant effect on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in terms of winter weather.
As any model watcher would state, the trend this winter has been to take systems northward. But the deal in this new pattern is that the Northern Branch isn’t in full control, and the models have been realizing that. All of you people in Maine and the far west interior of the Northeast shouldn’t really think these are your storms. Also, in the past situations, models have taken a while to see the power of the dominant branch. However, as I said, they seem to be a bit ahead on the pattern this time.
As I look at the 12z ECMWF runs, I can see that the 500mb vort images are hinting at a retrograding 50/50 in a very good position for the possible 16-18 storm. Anyone that has studied past big snowstorms will realize that the retrograding 50/50 was a key factor. Also, in this situation, I see a –NAO, which in a lot of cases in the past has spit out a good snowstorm. I think having a –NAO for a while earlier this winter didn’t help us, may not play as much of a factor as it usually would in my thinking. To continue the positive factors, there is a nice split flow in place. Many of the models have been evident in showing this and I am optimistic on that factor. The split flow should be setting in later next week prior to these storms which is obviously a good thing.
It would seem that there may be one problem. You have the –NAO, split flow, Canadian blocking, then you have the western trough. Most hearing that would somewhat discount the possibilities of major winter events. However, this is being leveled out by the split flow, so I am not worried too much about it.
On the other hand, if the SPLIT FLOW DOESN’T MATERIALIZE, THESE STORMS MAY BE IN TROUBLE due to the western troughing.
Another thing that is also positive is that the ECMWF is looking good ALONG with the GFS in its snowstorm possibilities for the two events. Now model agreement 10 days out and that is what it is and take it for what you wish but the setup is there.

More in the future!

WOW, WOW, WOW

What can I say the storm that looked out to sea since last night, now has shifted west on the 00z runs of the NAM and the GFS. These put BAL/DC in the bullseye giving the area 10+ inches of snow and howling winds(A MECS to HECS). I am issuing a PRELIMINARY STAGE 3 ALERT, preliminary because I want to see the ECMWF, anyone interested tonight at 1:30AM. Also, I am issuing an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH.
This may be an error, but looks to be a classic setup for a major-historic snowstorm in the area. Also due to the models now, if the ECMWF follows suit, expect a possible Winter Storm Watch or Blizzard Watch and expect that for me.

NWS=Winter Storm Warning

The NWS has just went over to a Winter Storm Warning for DC, AA, PG, and southern BAL counties from the Winter Weather Advisory.

I am going from a WSW from my RFS/DWS to an *ICE STORM WARNING* for those counties, and keep the *WINTER STORM WARNING* for the counties North and west of the ones I put in the Ice Storm Warning. I have 2.7'' of snow and sleet in my area.

In the Ice Storm Warning I think .3-.5'' of ice is likely for the ISW for S BAL county, while .25-.4'' of ice for DC, PG, and AA counties.

Alerts

Extended School Closing Warning- Schools are likely to close Tomorrow due to the likelihood of an early start to the snow. The school systems should also close Wednesday due to the icing problems Tomorrow night. Hopefully schools will close and not open at all Tomorrow to avoid an event like the Valentine's Day Massacre 2007.

STAGE 3 ALERT- Significant Winter storm, (for Snow, Sleet, and Ice)

Winter Storm Warning- My statement: Their is the likelighood of accumulating snow and ice for the area which will cause significant problems. This is for all counties in the Watch except for the District of Columbia, and (I will put PG and AA in it, may need to be removed.) There is a distinct possibilty that the models are underdoing the 2-4'' snowfall in the region and overdoing the warm air. I believe the snow and ice will not change to plain rain Baltimore North and West. There is a chance for 4-6'' of snow and sleet in the heaviest bands and over .2'' of ice in the heaviest areas. This will be a 2 pronged event. There is also a chance for back-end snow, more on that later. Expect updates. (3 AM Tuesday-9PM Wednesday)

I put out my Winter Storm Watch from the RFS/DWS

THIS IS NOT FROM THE NWS, this is from my RFS/DWS.

RFS/DWS has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* for snow and ice from Late Monday Night through Wednesday night. This watch includes the District of Columbia and the following counties in MD: Baltimore(N+S), Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, Montgomery, Frederick, Carroll, Harford, Howard, Washington, and Alegany and the independent city of Baltimore.
A primary low will track down through the south bringing snow and ice to the region as early as late Monday night. There is a chance that the snowfall may exceed 4 inches and the ice accumulation may exceed .25 inches. This will indeed be a high impact event and could cause extensive problems as precip will be long lasting. Travel may be made treacherous and during the storm people are advised to stay off the roads. A Winter Storm Watch means that a high impact winter weather event of snow and ice may have a significant accumulation and cause major travel difficulties. Stay tuned for more updates.

GEFS Ensembles, New Developments

Hmm, 12z GEFS ensembles prove my point. They are slightly south of the OP GFS and colder than it. They are also colder than the ECMWF which runs its 12z model at 1:30. Check it out as it will be very important. Anyways, the GEFS shows, snow-ice-heavy snow. The 850 is north of Baltimore but surface temps seem to support ice rather than rain. I believe the QPF from the Ensembles is tremendous and if we don’t get the rain, but rather ice in the middle, with that QPF, will produce a major ice storm/snow storm. (To sum it up, a big winter storm.)
The Weather channel along with the National Weather service point out wintry pictures for the Baltimore region.

All i can say for Baltimore, early indications are that models are at error a bit, and seem to take the storm too far north. Snow-Mix-Ice-Brief Rain(Maybe, later runs need to be seen)- Back to snow.

Expect a WSWatch from the RFS/DWS and a real WSWatch from the NWS out of BAL/DC tonight or early tomorrow.

Thats all for now, its Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.

QUICK CHANGE, BIG STORM COMING, DON'T BE SURE YET THOUGH

Hey guys, time for another update. It’s quick and a fast change. I am just gonna have to go higher once again and upgrade up to a STAGE 4 ALERT and to an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH as things are really heating up for MD. Check out the 00z GFS runs, wow. The reason for the STAGE 4 ALERT is because a snowfall up to 12`` with other significant winter precip. I will have a scenario out with possibilities later.

DISCUSSION 2 OH BOY

Alright we’re back again with another discussion. This will be a quick one as I have to go out, but here’s the deal. The 12z Euro gives DC a light accumulation while Baltimore gets a moderate one. The model may be going a bit too far north with it, and just keep note that I believe the 00z later at 1:30 tonight will be a bit south of the 12z.
On to the 18z GFS, what an interesting run. It seems to show a moderate-significant snowfall for BWI while DC does ok, with 3-6. The precip should go to sleet then ice with a significant accumulation of mixed precip. Sounds very wintry.
What has caught my attention even more are the 18z GFS 108-114 panels, showing another moderate snow event, with up to 6 additional inches for DC and BAL. This is just a quick model analysis.
Even if the runs aren’t 100% snow now, I see the potential that between Monday and Friday, there may be A MAJOR WINTER STORM with heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, with another event on its heals. The snow could reach 8`` with heavy accumulations of other winter precip. Its just a possibility, and im not speaking of accumulations. I am upgrading to a STAGE 3 ALERT and up to a SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH for TUES-WED-THURS.
I’ll have more, stay tuned.

Discussion from Yesterday

Forgot, to post it yesterday. When I mention yesterday, that means thursday.

Alright, as you guys know we have two/three shortwaves heading into the region during next week. The models have been trending a bit north and better for many areas. The idea that is presented is that the storm is a cold storm, that moves through a zonal flow and nearly straight across the Continental United States. A few days ago this storm looked good for I-95 and AccuWeather made note of the possibility of a storm with snow and ice with rain to the south of it. Then the models trended into suppression and gave VA south good snows and light snow into Maryland.
Not only was there suppression but there was also the fact that the low was being kept back into the western CONUS. This caused a slower storm and the precip being delayed. The meteorologists up and down the Eastern Seaboard disagreed with the energy being left back in the west and the low closing off near the CA/NV border.
Yesterday, the trend began shifting in the other direction and the cut off low idea has been delayed or even eliminated in the past runs of the GFS, GEFS, and GGEM. The idea now is a more progressive idea taking the storm out of the Rockies traveling over the MW CONUS and heading through the OV and Southern Mid-Atlantic. What I am beginning to see more clearly is that the models will begin to follow the normal winter track, and head more north than currently modeled.
As of now, the impact areas would be MD, DE, and VA but I expect the trend to take things north. Now not as north as other storms have trended, so I think the low will go over Central VA giving MD, DE, and PA snows with DC getting snow but S MD getting mixing with the snow.
What I would like to say is that there is a good potential for a moderate snowfall event with totals over 4+ inches next week throughout the region and due to that I will go into Level 1 Alert Mode. Also, schools may need to be altered, but delay/closings are unsure so I will only issue a Winter School Statement meaning schools may be affected but it is unsure how and the storm is still a bit away. That is all for now, I will keep you posted.