HERE WE GO, STAGE 5 ALERT, GAME ON

Stage 5 alert, up to 13 inches of snow here per 00z runs of GFS and NAM. Local news stations are saying 3-6, Justin Berk is closer w/4-8. I think that I may bust high, so watch out but I now think 8-12'' is likely for Dundalk with upwards of 10 inches in the city itself. Near Blizzard Conditions are also possible tomorrow night. Please Please Please stay tuned. This is a significant winter storm, not just accumulating snow in my mind. Be ready for 6+ inches tomorrow night into Monday. Expect the NWS to upgrade the WSWatch for the Baltimore area, should be updated to a warning when you wake up tomorrow morning or around noon. The point and click forecast for Dundalk is for 4-9'' of snow.

STAGE 4 ALERT

Do't have much time, have soccer game at 9. Got the smallest break in between. Up to 10 inches of snow are possible in areas. I expect 4-7'' in Baltimore, with the Dundalk area getting 5-8''. It is going to be a significant storm. Also, watch out for some wintry mix tonight overnight. The NWS has us under a WSWatch for several inches of snow :)

I will try to have an update, and if I do, it will be no earlier than 10:30. Really sorry I'm so busy. Also, tomorrow night into Monday's storm could produce wind driven snow and towards the end of the storm and after, Blizzard to Ground Blizzard conditions. I am giving that a 20% chance at 4+ inches of snow a 90% chance. DUNDALK is near the bullseye. THIS IS PROBABLY THE ONE. I am excited, and not hyping. Stay tuned folks.

Hey Guys

Check out the HPC update on their website. Sorry I couldn't give a link to it, but it sounds to me the DC-BAL-(Dundalk) corridor may get a big winter storm. I will have dissection on this storm either tonight or tomorrow morning early. I have to attend High School Baseball tryouts at 9AM, soccer at 1PM and another soccer game at 9PM so I am very unsure about posting tomorrow. If this starts to look like more than the 3-4'' I expect now, which it is trending towards 6+'', I will get to you.

Models A Bit Off

As I informed you, the models were printing out all snow, and at my house its a warm 38 degrees. Thats unfavorable for snow obviously. Once a cold front passes, winds switch directionsm and this switch will bring in colder air in. I will put in my forecast rain until 10AM, then rain/snow until 12 maybe 1230PM, and anything left after that as a few rain/snow showers. I disagree with the models giving accumulation due to the warm ground, however, the precip out west looks healthy, so stay tuned and watch as it might accumulate. The most likely areas for accumulation are on grassy areas and shrubbery,

A few things

Good evening, folks. I am back:

18z NAM prints out 0.04'' of precip, equating to all snow, 0.4'' with 10:1 ratios. The storm was further east and is an outlier however by the HPC.

Now the GFS has trended further south with low development starting around Hatteras, I will really need to watch the secondary development. This run prints us out 0.9'' of snow, a little incher. The coastal puts in a bit more precip this run. However, 1.1'' is more likely as the run itself prints out 0.11-0.13'' of precip.

Heres the GOES energy currently: , and that is on line with the GOES run.

Another thing is the current pressure rises and falls, the GL clipper low is weakening and is instead of traveling NE like the models have said, has come to a near stop.

What that does by weakening the low is that the energy is easier to transfer and get going off NC, and develop a bit quicker.

Next up is our steering currents as of 21z:

This image shows the lead and backside vorts. Like what is being discussed in the AW forums, we need a deeper dig of the backside in order to get a GOM moisture connection. That would help the MD area a bit with a slight boost in precip. That would even moreso help areas to our north, who are expecting more of a storm out of this.

Now, on to the Water Vapor. Quick examinations on this show the trough is digging to the south somewhat and to the east and that is what we need for the moisture connection. Also, the digging more would help us set up a negative trough; the earlier the trough goes negative, the earlier the coastal develops.

Here is that WV image: , looks pretty good.

Also, to prove my GFS 0.9'' inches of snow, here is the BUFR soundings for 18z GFS: BWI Airport.


Now, finally, I wanted to post the 18z time frame in which the storm is affecting the region so you can see why I think it is more than 0.09'' of precip as snow, meaning 0.9''. It is the fine version and at 1000-500mb thicknesses, one of the most important layers, and the layer used by AW.com Met HM.


I will have more, and an update after the 00z NAM, even though that model is an outlier. Enjoy your evening, its beautiful out, just dress kinda warm :)

12z ECMWF

A better run, a few inches of snow for us. It develops the secondary the GFS tried to last night and on the 06z this morning. That is promising to me, because I think the trough will turn negative and we may be a big snowstorm. I think 2-5'' is a safe bet, but there is a chance for an 8 inch snowfall. Stay tuned.

GEFS

As I expected, the 12z GFS was having trouble developing the secondary. I can say that is a possibility because the GEFS, (GFS Ensembles) are developing the secondary and giving DC/BAL a moderate snowfall. I'll have info about the ECMWF run once it comes up. Until then, pray for snow :)

WOW, WOW, WOW

What can I say the storm that looked out to sea since last night, now has shifted west on the 00z runs of the NAM and the GFS. These put BAL/DC in the bullseye giving the area 10+ inches of snow and howling winds(A MECS to HECS). I am issuing a PRELIMINARY STAGE 3 ALERT, preliminary because I want to see the ECMWF, anyone interested tonight at 1:30AM. Also, I am issuing an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH.
This may be an error, but looks to be a classic setup for a major-historic snowstorm in the area. Also due to the models now, if the ECMWF follows suit, expect a possible Winter Storm Watch or Blizzard Watch and expect that for me.

Nor' Easter Discussion and Analysis

Yesterday I spoke of the models being too far west and tracking over us with a lot of rain. Things seemed to have changed. HOWEVER, I need verification.

Hello again, and oh boy, I just don't know what to say. I think it is time to do a good analysis. I want to show you guys some models and their positions along with the vort's. It is very important.

Alright, we have a possible Major Storm coming next week. The setup seems to be a Miller A storm, starting in the Gulf of Mexico and riding up the coast. Here are some models:

GFS 00z For the Jan 30 run, ran night of Jan 29 :)


That started the east trend, now the 06z from 01.30.09

THAT'S 96 now 102

Now to TODAYS 12z 01.30.09 at its point thats its giving us the heaviest precip which is not that heavy.

Finally, THIS AFTERNOONS 18z run.
.

Alright, as you can see these models are agreeing more on a coastal track rather then the west of Apps or I-95 track thought to occur yesterday. Marlyand DC and VA are alive for a snowstorm along with DE and WV and PA very much so.

I WILL DISCUSS THE MODELS POSTED AFTER TONIGHTS 00z GFS, I have a reason for doing so. I will also likely do 500mbVort Maps.



I love it!!!

NWS=Winter Storm Warning

The NWS has just went over to a Winter Storm Warning for DC, AA, PG, and southern BAL counties from the Winter Weather Advisory.

I am going from a WSW from my RFS/DWS to an *ICE STORM WARNING* for those counties, and keep the *WINTER STORM WARNING* for the counties North and west of the ones I put in the Ice Storm Warning. I have 2.7'' of snow and sleet in my area.

In the Ice Storm Warning I think .3-.5'' of ice is likely for the ISW for S BAL county, while .25-.4'' of ice for DC, PG, and AA counties.

Discussion from Yesterday

Forgot, to post it yesterday. When I mention yesterday, that means thursday.

Alright, as you guys know we have two/three shortwaves heading into the region during next week. The models have been trending a bit north and better for many areas. The idea that is presented is that the storm is a cold storm, that moves through a zonal flow and nearly straight across the Continental United States. A few days ago this storm looked good for I-95 and AccuWeather made note of the possibility of a storm with snow and ice with rain to the south of it. Then the models trended into suppression and gave VA south good snows and light snow into Maryland.
Not only was there suppression but there was also the fact that the low was being kept back into the western CONUS. This caused a slower storm and the precip being delayed. The meteorologists up and down the Eastern Seaboard disagreed with the energy being left back in the west and the low closing off near the CA/NV border.
Yesterday, the trend began shifting in the other direction and the cut off low idea has been delayed or even eliminated in the past runs of the GFS, GEFS, and GGEM. The idea now is a more progressive idea taking the storm out of the Rockies traveling over the MW CONUS and heading through the OV and Southern Mid-Atlantic. What I am beginning to see more clearly is that the models will begin to follow the normal winter track, and head more north than currently modeled.
As of now, the impact areas would be MD, DE, and VA but I expect the trend to take things north. Now not as north as other storms have trended, so I think the low will go over Central VA giving MD, DE, and PA snows with DC getting snow but S MD getting mixing with the snow.
What I would like to say is that there is a good potential for a moderate snowfall event with totals over 4+ inches next week throughout the region and due to that I will go into Level 1 Alert Mode. Also, schools may need to be altered, but delay/closings are unsure so I will only issue a Winter School Statement meaning schools may be affected but it is unsure how and the storm is still a bit away. That is all for now, I will keep you posted.