HERE WE GO, STAGE 5 ALERT, GAME ON

Stage 5 alert, up to 13 inches of snow here per 00z runs of GFS and NAM. Local news stations are saying 3-6, Justin Berk is closer w/4-8. I think that I may bust high, so watch out but I now think 8-12'' is likely for Dundalk with upwards of 10 inches in the city itself. Near Blizzard Conditions are also possible tomorrow night. Please Please Please stay tuned. This is a significant winter storm, not just accumulating snow in my mind. Be ready for 6+ inches tomorrow night into Monday. Expect the NWS to upgrade the WSWatch for the Baltimore area, should be updated to a warning when you wake up tomorrow morning or around noon. The point and click forecast for Dundalk is for 4-9'' of snow.

Forecast

School Delay Warning
School Closing Advisory, you could almost bank on a closing if the snow around the area moves in.

For Western Baltimore EAST

Columbia: 1-3''
BWI: 0.75-2.5''
Baltimore Inner Harbor: 1.5-3.5''
Dundalk: 2-4''
Parkville: 2-4''
Bel Air: 2-4''
Aberdeen: 2-4'' local 5''
Easton: 2-4'' local 5''
Perryville: 2.5-5'' local 6''

As you guys know, I hit the last storm right on the money, and expect nothing less this time. I may update about 00z GFS and radars.

My Accumulation map

Key is as follows:
Green= all rain, 1+'' rain
Pink= Mix to rain, maybe 1 inch of slop, 0.5'' rain
light blue= 3-5'' of snow, then ice, 0.2-0.5, then some rain for a little while, 0.25 rain
pale blue= 4-7(looks more like 4-6 at the moment but 4-7) then some mix
yellow= 1-3'' of snow-mix then rain
----------------PURPLE LINE DENOTES ALL SNOW NORTH OF IT------------------
dark blue= 6-9'' all snow, locally higher
red= 10+'' locally over a foot
light violet= 5-8'' of snow


THIS MAP is a SREF/NAM/GFS/UKMET/GGEM/RGEM/DGEX/ My self Comp MeteoRAK
(I believe NOGAPS and JMA showed southern solution) I didnt see Korean, CARPS, GASP, or the other world models.

Scenario

Heres what we should expect, i think models are a bit warm, winds off the ocean will be not raising temps, upper levels intruded later Tuesday Night, may be hard to change surface to all rain Southern Baltimore county North and West. I think that the storm will go like this:

Tuesday(2-4 local 5'' snows) more north, S BAL CNTY N+W most snow. Snow from 5AM until 7PM occasionally for first event. High 29.

Tuesday Night(1'' maybe 2'' of snow and sleet) S BAL CNTY N+W transitioning to sleet and freezing rain(maybe light sleet accumulation, ice accumulation from 0.10-0.25''. Low 27. Icy Mix 11PM-4AM.

Wednesday(Freezing Rain to Rain) S BAL CNTY N+W, ice accumulation possible, Ice 4AM-7AM, rain 7AM to 1PM, then possible back end snow, snow accumulation possible.

My snow map will be out later possibly.

Alerts

Extended School Closing Warning- Schools are likely to close Tomorrow due to the likelihood of an early start to the snow. The school systems should also close Wednesday due to the icing problems Tomorrow night. Hopefully schools will close and not open at all Tomorrow to avoid an event like the Valentine's Day Massacre 2007.

STAGE 3 ALERT- Significant Winter storm, (for Snow, Sleet, and Ice)

Winter Storm Warning- My statement: Their is the likelighood of accumulating snow and ice for the area which will cause significant problems. This is for all counties in the Watch except for the District of Columbia, and (I will put PG and AA in it, may need to be removed.) There is a distinct possibilty that the models are underdoing the 2-4'' snowfall in the region and overdoing the warm air. I believe the snow and ice will not change to plain rain Baltimore North and West. There is a chance for 4-6'' of snow and sleet in the heaviest bands and over .2'' of ice in the heaviest areas. This will be a 2 pronged event. There is also a chance for back-end snow, more on that later. Expect updates. (3 AM Tuesday-9PM Wednesday)

I put out my Winter Storm Watch from the RFS/DWS

THIS IS NOT FROM THE NWS, this is from my RFS/DWS.

RFS/DWS has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* for snow and ice from Late Monday Night through Wednesday night. This watch includes the District of Columbia and the following counties in MD: Baltimore(N+S), Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, Montgomery, Frederick, Carroll, Harford, Howard, Washington, and Alegany and the independent city of Baltimore.
A primary low will track down through the south bringing snow and ice to the region as early as late Monday night. There is a chance that the snowfall may exceed 4 inches and the ice accumulation may exceed .25 inches. This will indeed be a high impact event and could cause extensive problems as precip will be long lasting. Travel may be made treacherous and during the storm people are advised to stay off the roads. A Winter Storm Watch means that a high impact winter weather event of snow and ice may have a significant accumulation and cause major travel difficulties. Stay tuned for more updates.

Another one

After the pretty good icing we had last storm, making my snow accumulations off, I can report .15 inches of ice at my house. It was a pretty good glaze and our first ice storm this year, albeit small. However, this next storm is going to do much of the same. All Maryland counties west of the bay (Cecil not in Advisory) and excluding counties of St. Mary's, Charles, and Calvert are under a *Winter Weather Advisory* from 10 PM tonight 'til `10 AM tomorrow for freezing rain. I also expect sleet to mix with the freezing rain.

Heres what I expect:
I expect the precip to start as freezing rain/sleet/ maybe a few snowflakes and continue through the overnight into around 9AM due to current indications. The sleet could accumulate to around a coating or a bit more in heavier bands.

Now for ice accumulations, I expect 0.1-0.2 inches of ice. A period of verga could help the temperature cool off. If it does, I would expect even more ice. An Ice Storm Warning could be possible and I think there is a better chance than most believe. I don't expect it, but if the cold air wins, some localized spots could get up to 0.4 inches of ice.

The criteria for an Ice Storm Warning is 0.25 inches of ice for the NWS in STERLING(BALTIMORE/ WASHINGTON DC.) I will update later most likely. Stay safe, happy holidays.