A few things

Good evening, folks. I am back:

18z NAM prints out 0.04'' of precip, equating to all snow, 0.4'' with 10:1 ratios. The storm was further east and is an outlier however by the HPC.

Now the GFS has trended further south with low development starting around Hatteras, I will really need to watch the secondary development. This run prints us out 0.9'' of snow, a little incher. The coastal puts in a bit more precip this run. However, 1.1'' is more likely as the run itself prints out 0.11-0.13'' of precip.

Heres the GOES energy currently: , and that is on line with the GOES run.

Another thing is the current pressure rises and falls, the GL clipper low is weakening and is instead of traveling NE like the models have said, has come to a near stop.

What that does by weakening the low is that the energy is easier to transfer and get going off NC, and develop a bit quicker.

Next up is our steering currents as of 21z:

This image shows the lead and backside vorts. Like what is being discussed in the AW forums, we need a deeper dig of the backside in order to get a GOM moisture connection. That would help the MD area a bit with a slight boost in precip. That would even moreso help areas to our north, who are expecting more of a storm out of this.

Now, on to the Water Vapor. Quick examinations on this show the trough is digging to the south somewhat and to the east and that is what we need for the moisture connection. Also, the digging more would help us set up a negative trough; the earlier the trough goes negative, the earlier the coastal develops.

Here is that WV image: , looks pretty good.

Also, to prove my GFS 0.9'' inches of snow, here is the BUFR soundings for 18z GFS: BWI Airport.


Now, finally, I wanted to post the 18z time frame in which the storm is affecting the region so you can see why I think it is more than 0.09'' of precip as snow, meaning 0.9''. It is the fine version and at 1000-500mb thicknesses, one of the most important layers, and the layer used by AW.com Met HM.


I will have more, and an update after the 00z NAM, even though that model is an outlier. Enjoy your evening, its beautiful out, just dress kinda warm :)

Little Event

Hey guys, been very, very busy. Expect more posting now though as I have some time opened this week.

The 12z NAM/WRF spits out 0.6'' of snow for the Overnight-Sunday Morning event.

The 12z GFS/AVN spits out 0.6'' of snow, with up to 0.02'' in ice pellets, meaning 0.1'' of those with the 5:1 ratio.

I can see us getting surprised on this one and I am going to give a 12z ECMWF update shortly.

My Accumulation map

Key is as follows:
Green= all rain, 1+'' rain
Pink= Mix to rain, maybe 1 inch of slop, 0.5'' rain
light blue= 3-5'' of snow, then ice, 0.2-0.5, then some rain for a little while, 0.25 rain
pale blue= 4-7(looks more like 4-6 at the moment but 4-7) then some mix
yellow= 1-3'' of snow-mix then rain
----------------PURPLE LINE DENOTES ALL SNOW NORTH OF IT------------------
dark blue= 6-9'' all snow, locally higher
red= 10+'' locally over a foot
light violet= 5-8'' of snow


THIS MAP is a SREF/NAM/GFS/UKMET/GGEM/RGEM/DGEX/ My self Comp MeteoRAK
(I believe NOGAPS and JMA showed southern solution) I didnt see Korean, CARPS, GASP, or the other world models.

It has caught my attention that...

Just something quick that has caught my eye. I believe Baltimore and Dundalk will change to rain, but very briefly. What is weird is that the NWS and TWC along with WeatherBug, Accuweather, and local stations have the area in a wintry forecast. Maybe these organizations have caught onto something that we haven’t and I believe it is possible also that the models are not handling this even if we are this close to a storm. I think you must let the pros do their job and expect what the forecast says giving a bit of wiggle room. Hopefully, for the MD snow lovers, this pans out like the organizations are thinking now. That would be nice for you guys and hey, who doesn’t like snow? (Everyone likes snow, cough cough)

GEFS Ensembles, New Developments

Hmm, 12z GEFS ensembles prove my point. They are slightly south of the OP GFS and colder than it. They are also colder than the ECMWF which runs its 12z model at 1:30. Check it out as it will be very important. Anyways, the GEFS shows, snow-ice-heavy snow. The 850 is north of Baltimore but surface temps seem to support ice rather than rain. I believe the QPF from the Ensembles is tremendous and if we don’t get the rain, but rather ice in the middle, with that QPF, will produce a major ice storm/snow storm. (To sum it up, a big winter storm.)
The Weather channel along with the National Weather service point out wintry pictures for the Baltimore region.

All i can say for Baltimore, early indications are that models are at error a bit, and seem to take the storm too far north. Snow-Mix-Ice-Brief Rain(Maybe, later runs need to be seen)- Back to snow.

Expect a WSWatch from the RFS/DWS and a real WSWatch from the NWS out of BAL/DC tonight or early tomorrow.

Thats all for now, its Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.

A bit on the models

Good afternoon guys, storm possibility update. I am noticiing a few things from looking at the models. It seems as if the storm that will track up the coast is moving a bit to the east which is great for I-95 winter weather. Also, the High to the north seems to be moving west. If this continues, things could change. We'll have to wait and see!