What can I say the storm that looked out to sea since last night, now has shifted west on the 00z runs of the NAM and the GFS. These put BAL/DC in the bullseye giving the area 10+ inches of snow and howling winds(A MECS to HECS). I am issuing a PRELIMINARY STAGE 3 ALERT, preliminary because I want to see the ECMWF, anyone interested tonight at 1:30AM. Also, I am issuing an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH.
This may be an error, but looks to be a classic setup for a major-historic snowstorm in the area. Also due to the models now, if the ECMWF follows suit, expect a possible Winter Storm Watch or Blizzard Watch and expect that for me.
Showing posts with label MECS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MECS. Show all posts
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Saturday, January 24, 2009
QUICK CHANGE, BIG STORM COMING, DON'T BE SURE YET THOUGH
Hey guys, time for another update. It’s quick and a fast change. I am just gonna have to go higher once again and upgrade up to a STAGE 4 ALERT and to an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH as things are really heating up for MD. Check out the 00z GFS runs, wow. The reason for the STAGE 4 ALERT is because a snowfall up to 12`` with other significant winter precip. I will have a scenario out with possibilities later.
DISCUSSION 2 OH BOY
Alright we’re back again with another discussion. This will be a quick one as I have to go out, but here’s the deal. The 12z Euro gives DC a light accumulation while Baltimore gets a moderate one. The model may be going a bit too far north with it, and just keep note that I believe the 00z later at 1:30 tonight will be a bit south of the 12z.
On to the 18z GFS, what an interesting run. It seems to show a moderate-significant snowfall for BWI while DC does ok, with 3-6. The precip should go to sleet then ice with a significant accumulation of mixed precip. Sounds very wintry.
What has caught my attention even more are the 18z GFS 108-114 panels, showing another moderate snow event, with up to 6 additional inches for DC and BAL. This is just a quick model analysis.
Even if the runs aren’t 100% snow now, I see the potential that between Monday and Friday, there may be A MAJOR WINTER STORM with heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, with another event on its heals. The snow could reach 8`` with heavy accumulations of other winter precip. Its just a possibility, and im not speaking of accumulations. I am upgrading to a STAGE 3 ALERT and up to a SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH for TUES-WED-THURS.
I’ll have more, stay tuned.
On to the 18z GFS, what an interesting run. It seems to show a moderate-significant snowfall for BWI while DC does ok, with 3-6. The precip should go to sleet then ice with a significant accumulation of mixed precip. Sounds very wintry.
What has caught my attention even more are the 18z GFS 108-114 panels, showing another moderate snow event, with up to 6 additional inches for DC and BAL. This is just a quick model analysis.
Even if the runs aren’t 100% snow now, I see the potential that between Monday and Friday, there may be A MAJOR WINTER STORM with heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, with another event on its heals. The snow could reach 8`` with heavy accumulations of other winter precip. Its just a possibility, and im not speaking of accumulations. I am upgrading to a STAGE 3 ALERT and up to a SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH for TUES-WED-THURS.
I’ll have more, stay tuned.
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