Nor' Easter Discussion and Analysis

Yesterday I spoke of the models being too far west and tracking over us with a lot of rain. Things seemed to have changed. HOWEVER, I need verification.

Hello again, and oh boy, I just don't know what to say. I think it is time to do a good analysis. I want to show you guys some models and their positions along with the vort's. It is very important.

Alright, we have a possible Major Storm coming next week. The setup seems to be a Miller A storm, starting in the Gulf of Mexico and riding up the coast. Here are some models:

GFS 00z For the Jan 30 run, ran night of Jan 29 :)


That started the east trend, now the 06z from 01.30.09

THAT'S 96 now 102

Now to TODAYS 12z 01.30.09 at its point thats its giving us the heaviest precip which is not that heavy.

Finally, THIS AFTERNOONS 18z run.
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Alright, as you can see these models are agreeing more on a coastal track rather then the west of Apps or I-95 track thought to occur yesterday. Marlyand DC and VA are alive for a snowstorm along with DE and WV and PA very much so.

I WILL DISCUSS THE MODELS POSTED AFTER TONIGHTS 00z GFS, I have a reason for doing so. I will also likely do 500mbVort Maps.



I love it!!!

QUICK CHANGE, BIG STORM COMING, DON'T BE SURE YET THOUGH

Hey guys, time for another update. It’s quick and a fast change. I am just gonna have to go higher once again and upgrade up to a STAGE 4 ALERT and to an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH as things are really heating up for MD. Check out the 00z GFS runs, wow. The reason for the STAGE 4 ALERT is because a snowfall up to 12`` with other significant winter precip. I will have a scenario out with possibilities later.

DISCUSSION 2 OH BOY

Alright we’re back again with another discussion. This will be a quick one as I have to go out, but here’s the deal. The 12z Euro gives DC a light accumulation while Baltimore gets a moderate one. The model may be going a bit too far north with it, and just keep note that I believe the 00z later at 1:30 tonight will be a bit south of the 12z.
On to the 18z GFS, what an interesting run. It seems to show a moderate-significant snowfall for BWI while DC does ok, with 3-6. The precip should go to sleet then ice with a significant accumulation of mixed precip. Sounds very wintry.
What has caught my attention even more are the 18z GFS 108-114 panels, showing another moderate snow event, with up to 6 additional inches for DC and BAL. This is just a quick model analysis.
Even if the runs aren’t 100% snow now, I see the potential that between Monday and Friday, there may be A MAJOR WINTER STORM with heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, with another event on its heals. The snow could reach 8`` with heavy accumulations of other winter precip. Its just a possibility, and im not speaking of accumulations. I am upgrading to a STAGE 3 ALERT and up to a SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH for TUES-WED-THURS.
I’ll have more, stay tuned.

Discussion from Yesterday

Forgot, to post it yesterday. When I mention yesterday, that means thursday.

Alright, as you guys know we have two/three shortwaves heading into the region during next week. The models have been trending a bit north and better for many areas. The idea that is presented is that the storm is a cold storm, that moves through a zonal flow and nearly straight across the Continental United States. A few days ago this storm looked good for I-95 and AccuWeather made note of the possibility of a storm with snow and ice with rain to the south of it. Then the models trended into suppression and gave VA south good snows and light snow into Maryland.
Not only was there suppression but there was also the fact that the low was being kept back into the western CONUS. This caused a slower storm and the precip being delayed. The meteorologists up and down the Eastern Seaboard disagreed with the energy being left back in the west and the low closing off near the CA/NV border.
Yesterday, the trend began shifting in the other direction and the cut off low idea has been delayed or even eliminated in the past runs of the GFS, GEFS, and GGEM. The idea now is a more progressive idea taking the storm out of the Rockies traveling over the MW CONUS and heading through the OV and Southern Mid-Atlantic. What I am beginning to see more clearly is that the models will begin to follow the normal winter track, and head more north than currently modeled.
As of now, the impact areas would be MD, DE, and VA but I expect the trend to take things north. Now not as north as other storms have trended, so I think the low will go over Central VA giving MD, DE, and PA snows with DC getting snow but S MD getting mixing with the snow.
What I would like to say is that there is a good potential for a moderate snowfall event with totals over 4+ inches next week throughout the region and due to that I will go into Level 1 Alert Mode. Also, schools may need to be altered, but delay/closings are unsure so I will only issue a Winter School Statement meaning schools may be affected but it is unsure how and the storm is still a bit away. That is all for now, I will keep you posted.

JAN 3 DISCUSSION, hmm.

Hmm, yeah that sums up this January 3rd discussion, it's junior meteorologist Ryan K here with some developments. As many of you know, the models are very unpredictable and for next weeks storm, I see that, and really here are my thoughts about the models.
The ECMWF model has now jumped on the boat of models showing a coastal redevelopment for the secondary system and seems to be trending to a more favorable solution for the area. What I think is interesting is that the NWS AFD has a possible ice storm for Most of central MD including Baltimore City, County even east of 95, well really all counties except southern MD.
Heres the link for that: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off.
I can say that is a viable solution. The 18z GFS this afternoon was like a blowtorch run, and I have put very little stake into that based on the thoughts from the NWS and the HPC. The deal is that a CAD event is very possible in my mind for the DC, MD, PA region and should be closely monitored. What I do expect is at least some wintry precip on the front end for the DC/BAL metro.
On Tuesday very early, I will be heading up to NYC and won't be back until late that evening so don't expect an update on Tuesday.

Basically though, with a SE ridge in place but being blocked by the -NAO and Greenland block. This helps the region and gives us more hope for wintry weather. The previous PV I described is being broken down a bit more than before which is also a good sign. Now I am by no means giving up on this storm.

As a matter of fact here is a post from Matt, a buddy from AccuWeather.com Forums, known as AtownWxWatcher. He found this on Eastern Wx Forums from Tip, a pro met. Here it is:

"I have been of the school all along that while I do believe the -NAO has numbered days here, the ECM's recent runs have been too fast to dismantle the configuration. That said...there may be a nod in the direction of conserving the field a bit longer. That does give some plausibility back to confluence at mid levels over SE Canada; it may be that the ECM is latching onto this idea now that it is crossing into the 4 day lead for the East Coast. Not sure I see the HP up north being weaker in future runs, and believe we need to see that to lift a warm front up the coast in this situation.Timing is also critical here. As the annotations show above, the 24 hours prior to the 96 hour chart, there is a nice cold shot migrating through the upper MA/NE states. This air mass comes in from a snow pack, too. I don't believe this air mass has had sufficient time to modify - certainly not thermodynamically (DPs). I believe the 500mb thickness migration of contours will be miss-leading as to what is taking place in the BL from about N VA on up the coast, on the western side of I-95 (approximately).We'll see how this plays out but we have already had on system up here in New England, where the mid-level centers went bodily west yet we captured primarily a frozen/freezing event out of it... It is not impossible that more ice could be available to the interior MA given this solution trend combined with synoptic awareness."

And this is his map analysis:
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id26093

Thanks Tip, and also, here is a useful link, http://atownwxwatcher.blogspot.com/, it includes no wishcasting and analyzes the patterns.

More regarding this storm later, this is Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.

JAN 2 DISCUSSION (and Model Discussion)

Sorry I've been gone so long, been very bsuy with work and vacation in between and the holidays but now I'm here. It seems as if I will only be able to posts when a storm is coming as I am always trying to find time to post.

But now to the weather.

The snow/rain showers passed through this morning and were reported by a few folks around the region. Some more showers are possible on Sunday moring and/or evening. For those of you, N/W of BAL/DC, you may see some freezing rain and a slight ice buildup for those areas. If the threat materializes more, I will include that in a post.

Now to the possible storm for next week, I was pretty confident in the idea of front end wintry precip and still am however the amount of it is dwindling. The models are showing(most of them) a primary cutting up into the GL. Now for those of you that don't know we have a good teleconnections setup. I will try to maybe post some, doubt it, tight on time, got practice. The deal is with a trending positive PNA in the pacific, and the Negative NAO and AO in the atlantic and east are favoring a good winter storm. This also throws the big bad SE ridge out of the picture. I know the SE ridge is a pain, but not for this one, however, it has brought in some backup.

The deal with today's storm that was supposed to develop a coastal was supression. That was due to an NAO that was too negative. The NAO level was positive causing many GLC's in November. What happened to the storm for today was that the NAO was too much of a good thing taking the storm farther east and developing any secondary far away from the E CONUS.

The NAO is now not as negative but that isn't the problem. But as I said about the SE ridge, it has backup.

A strong PV(Polar Vortex) is near the Gulf of Alaska. You may think, who cares about Alaska. Well it is a big deal. Although you can have big snowstorms in the east with a good block and a good Atlantic, it helps to have a favorable position in the Pacific. The PV is causing the ridge in the west to not gain strength in turn disableing the digging of a nice positive tilted trough in the east. What that means is any secondary that forms along the East Coast from the Primary that will most likely cut up the lakes will develop too far north most likely doing a few of these things to E WV VA, DC, MD, DE, and S PA.

---Dry Slot
---Not have a lot of precip left
---Not bring in enough cold air
---A few other events.

The point is that the models are showing an unfavorable situation for any more than a light accumulation from front end snow here in MD. I know that things can change and who knows what can happen with the inconsistency of the models.

One thing I have noticed is the ECMWF, also known as teh ECM or Euro is showing the west of the apps solution with no coastal redevelopment. With the good block, I can agree with the apps situation, but a coastal would have to redevelop, however with the Euro's track of a primary, a secondary wouldn't form in a favorable position.

There are no models supporting the ECMWF's primary-only situation. Now, the GFS, GEFS, UKMET, GGEM, (and I believe NOGAPS and JMA.) However, this long discussion can be sumed up with the words "We've got 4-5 days, calm down." Things can and will change. What matters is how they change.

The euro is consistent in it's thinking even if it is alone while the GFS varies on EVERY run.

I'll have more, this is Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.