Showing posts with label Wow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wow. Show all posts
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Saturday, January 31, 2009
WOW, WOW, WOW
What can I say the storm that looked out to sea since last night, now has shifted west on the 00z runs of the NAM and the GFS. These put BAL/DC in the bullseye giving the area 10+ inches of snow and howling winds(A MECS to HECS). I am issuing a PRELIMINARY STAGE 3 ALERT, preliminary because I want to see the ECMWF, anyone interested tonight at 1:30AM. Also, I am issuing an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH.
This may be an error, but looks to be a classic setup for a major-historic snowstorm in the area. Also due to the models now, if the ECMWF follows suit, expect a possible Winter Storm Watch or Blizzard Watch and expect that for me.
This may be an error, but looks to be a classic setup for a major-historic snowstorm in the area. Also due to the models now, if the ECMWF follows suit, expect a possible Winter Storm Watch or Blizzard Watch and expect that for me.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Did you say superstorm?
Yes I did folks!
Hello, its time for another set of storm discussions as we near a stormy period. Now I am aware of the models showing a storm near or exceeding the criteria for a Superstorm next week.
Blizzard of 2009 likely? Yes! Likely for places on I-95 south of Boston needing snow? Not looking so great! The deal is even with a negative NAO, negative AO, and neutral to very slightly positive PNA in place, there are the lack of a few things. Confluence is always important for storm to have its cold air and the AO being negative helps. The storms model timeframe shows the Bermuda high killer in the Atlantic Ocean and that is a bit west for the likelihood of an I-95 snowstorm. I think with the storm being modeled as deep as a sub 960mb storm is amazing. Some are asking me, well if the storm is sub960mb, wouldnt the temperature gradient lead it to the warm Atlantic ocean? Usually, the answer to that question is yes, and is a very viable solution for this upcoming storm, just not the most likely at this point. The mighty ECMWF model has this storm driving straight up the apps, which is a VERY unlikely solution. The NWS seems to think the solution of a storm along or east of I-95 is most likely at this time. I am also supporting that solution also. However, I am not favoring it to be east enough to give I-95 cities a large snowstorm. In this storm, the farther south you are in the east, the better chance you have at snow if you are not in the Interior. DC, MD, and VA are more likely to see some accumulation of wintry precip at this time than MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, and NH. I'll have MUCH MORE on this storm in the future.
There will be comparisons, expectations, etc. in the future!
Hello, its time for another set of storm discussions as we near a stormy period. Now I am aware of the models showing a storm near or exceeding the criteria for a Superstorm next week.
Blizzard of 2009 likely? Yes! Likely for places on I-95 south of Boston needing snow? Not looking so great! The deal is even with a negative NAO, negative AO, and neutral to very slightly positive PNA in place, there are the lack of a few things. Confluence is always important for storm to have its cold air and the AO being negative helps. The storms model timeframe shows the Bermuda high killer in the Atlantic Ocean and that is a bit west for the likelihood of an I-95 snowstorm. I think with the storm being modeled as deep as a sub 960mb storm is amazing. Some are asking me, well if the storm is sub960mb, wouldnt the temperature gradient lead it to the warm Atlantic ocean? Usually, the answer to that question is yes, and is a very viable solution for this upcoming storm, just not the most likely at this point. The mighty ECMWF model has this storm driving straight up the apps, which is a VERY unlikely solution. The NWS seems to think the solution of a storm along or east of I-95 is most likely at this time. I am also supporting that solution also. However, I am not favoring it to be east enough to give I-95 cities a large snowstorm. In this storm, the farther south you are in the east, the better chance you have at snow if you are not in the Interior. DC, MD, and VA are more likely to see some accumulation of wintry precip at this time than MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, and NH. I'll have MUCH MORE on this storm in the future.
There will be comparisons, expectations, etc. in the future!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
