What can I say the storm that looked out to sea since last night, now has shifted west on the 00z runs of the NAM and the GFS. These put BAL/DC in the bullseye giving the area 10+ inches of snow and howling winds(A MECS to HECS). I am issuing a PRELIMINARY STAGE 3 ALERT, preliminary because I want to see the ECMWF, anyone interested tonight at 1:30AM. Also, I am issuing an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH.
This may be an error, but looks to be a classic setup for a major-historic snowstorm in the area. Also due to the models now, if the ECMWF follows suit, expect a possible Winter Storm Watch or Blizzard Watch and expect that for me.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Friday, January 30, 2009
Nor' Easter Discussion and Analysis
Yesterday I spoke of the models being too far west and tracking over us with a lot of rain. Things seemed to have changed. HOWEVER, I need verification.
Hello again, and oh boy, I just don't know what to say. I think it is time to do a good analysis. I want to show you guys some models and their positions along with the vort's. It is very important.
Alright, we have a possible Major Storm coming next week. The setup seems to be a Miller A storm, starting in the Gulf of Mexico and riding up the coast. Here are some models:
GFS 00z For the Jan 30 run, ran night of Jan 29 :)
That started the east trend, now the 06z from 01.30.09
THAT'S 96 now 102
Now to TODAYS 12z 01.30.09 at its point thats its giving us the heaviest precip which is not that heavy.
Finally, THIS AFTERNOONS 18z run.
.
Alright, as you can see these models are agreeing more on a coastal track rather then the west of Apps or I-95 track thought to occur yesterday. Marlyand DC and VA are alive for a snowstorm along with DE and WV and PA very much so.
I WILL DISCUSS THE MODELS POSTED AFTER TONIGHTS 00z GFS, I have a reason for doing so. I will also likely do 500mbVort Maps.
I love it!!!
Hello again, and oh boy, I just don't know what to say. I think it is time to do a good analysis. I want to show you guys some models and their positions along with the vort's. It is very important.
Alright, we have a possible Major Storm coming next week. The setup seems to be a Miller A storm, starting in the Gulf of Mexico and riding up the coast. Here are some models:
GFS 00z For the Jan 30 run, ran night of Jan 29 :)
That started the east trend, now the 06z from 01.30.09
THAT'S 96 now 102
Now to TODAYS 12z 01.30.09 at its point thats its giving us the heaviest precip which is not that heavy.
Finally, THIS AFTERNOONS 18z run.
. Alright, as you can see these models are agreeing more on a coastal track rather then the west of Apps or I-95 track thought to occur yesterday. Marlyand DC and VA are alive for a snowstorm along with DE and WV and PA very much so.
I WILL DISCUSS THE MODELS POSTED AFTER TONIGHTS 00z GFS, I have a reason for doing so. I will also likely do 500mbVort Maps.
I love it!!!
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Did you say superstorm?
Yes I did folks!
Hello, its time for another set of storm discussions as we near a stormy period. Now I am aware of the models showing a storm near or exceeding the criteria for a Superstorm next week.
Blizzard of 2009 likely? Yes! Likely for places on I-95 south of Boston needing snow? Not looking so great! The deal is even with a negative NAO, negative AO, and neutral to very slightly positive PNA in place, there are the lack of a few things. Confluence is always important for storm to have its cold air and the AO being negative helps. The storms model timeframe shows the Bermuda high killer in the Atlantic Ocean and that is a bit west for the likelihood of an I-95 snowstorm. I think with the storm being modeled as deep as a sub 960mb storm is amazing. Some are asking me, well if the storm is sub960mb, wouldnt the temperature gradient lead it to the warm Atlantic ocean? Usually, the answer to that question is yes, and is a very viable solution for this upcoming storm, just not the most likely at this point. The mighty ECMWF model has this storm driving straight up the apps, which is a VERY unlikely solution. The NWS seems to think the solution of a storm along or east of I-95 is most likely at this time. I am also supporting that solution also. However, I am not favoring it to be east enough to give I-95 cities a large snowstorm. In this storm, the farther south you are in the east, the better chance you have at snow if you are not in the Interior. DC, MD, and VA are more likely to see some accumulation of wintry precip at this time than MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, and NH. I'll have MUCH MORE on this storm in the future.
There will be comparisons, expectations, etc. in the future!
Hello, its time for another set of storm discussions as we near a stormy period. Now I am aware of the models showing a storm near or exceeding the criteria for a Superstorm next week.
Blizzard of 2009 likely? Yes! Likely for places on I-95 south of Boston needing snow? Not looking so great! The deal is even with a negative NAO, negative AO, and neutral to very slightly positive PNA in place, there are the lack of a few things. Confluence is always important for storm to have its cold air and the AO being negative helps. The storms model timeframe shows the Bermuda high killer in the Atlantic Ocean and that is a bit west for the likelihood of an I-95 snowstorm. I think with the storm being modeled as deep as a sub 960mb storm is amazing. Some are asking me, well if the storm is sub960mb, wouldnt the temperature gradient lead it to the warm Atlantic ocean? Usually, the answer to that question is yes, and is a very viable solution for this upcoming storm, just not the most likely at this point. The mighty ECMWF model has this storm driving straight up the apps, which is a VERY unlikely solution. The NWS seems to think the solution of a storm along or east of I-95 is most likely at this time. I am also supporting that solution also. However, I am not favoring it to be east enough to give I-95 cities a large snowstorm. In this storm, the farther south you are in the east, the better chance you have at snow if you are not in the Interior. DC, MD, and VA are more likely to see some accumulation of wintry precip at this time than MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, and NH. I'll have MUCH MORE on this storm in the future.
There will be comparisons, expectations, etc. in the future!
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
NWS=Winter Storm Warning
The NWS has just went over to a Winter Storm Warning for DC, AA, PG, and southern BAL counties from the Winter Weather Advisory.
I am going from a WSW from my RFS/DWS to an *ICE STORM WARNING* for those counties, and keep the *WINTER STORM WARNING* for the counties North and west of the ones I put in the Ice Storm Warning. I have 2.7'' of snow and sleet in my area.
In the Ice Storm Warning I think .3-.5'' of ice is likely for the ISW for S BAL county, while .25-.4'' of ice for DC, PG, and AA counties.
I am going from a WSW from my RFS/DWS to an *ICE STORM WARNING* for those counties, and keep the *WINTER STORM WARNING* for the counties North and west of the ones I put in the Ice Storm Warning. I have 2.7'' of snow and sleet in my area.
In the Ice Storm Warning I think .3-.5'' of ice is likely for the ISW for S BAL county, while .25-.4'' of ice for DC, PG, and AA counties.
10 AM Update
Sorry I'm so late folks, the deal is, all local schools are closed in my Alert area. Yesterday in my conference call with the NWS and Emergency Management, along with other high ranked people, I knew this storm would be healthy. Snows are accumulating, and I have 1.4'' at my house. The snow is falling moderately. Their is a break in the action for a short time to the west, but precip is redeveloping as I expected.
Dundalk: 3-5'' snow and sleet, .2-.3'' ice, 0.4'' rain
Baltimore County: 3-6'' Up to 7 north .2-.4'' ice, 0.3'' rain, 2-4.5'' downtown
More areas in my later update, this is looking healthy, and should surprise a lot of people
Dundalk: 3-5'' snow and sleet, .2-.3'' ice, 0.4'' rain
Baltimore County: 3-6'' Up to 7 north .2-.4'' ice, 0.3'' rain, 2-4.5'' downtown
More areas in my later update, this is looking healthy, and should surprise a lot of people
My Accumulation map
Key is as follows:
Green= all rain, 1+'' rain
Pink= Mix to rain, maybe 1 inch of slop, 0.5'' rain
light blue= 3-5'' of snow, then ice, 0.2-0.5, then some rain for a little while, 0.25 rain
pale blue= 4-7(looks more like 4-6 at the moment but 4-7) then some mix
yellow= 1-3'' of snow-mix then rain
----------------PURPLE LINE DENOTES ALL SNOW NORTH OF IT------------------
dark blue= 6-9'' all snow, locally higher
red= 10+'' locally over a foot
light violet= 5-8'' of snow
THIS MAP is a SREF/NAM/GFS/UKMET/GGEM/RGEM/DGEX/ My self Comp MeteoRAK
(I believe NOGAPS and JMA showed southern solution) I didnt see Korean, CARPS, GASP, or the other world models.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Scenario
Heres what we should expect, i think models are a bit warm, winds off the ocean will be not raising temps, upper levels intruded later Tuesday Night, may be hard to change surface to all rain Southern Baltimore county North and West. I think that the storm will go like this:
Tuesday(2-4 local 5'' snows) more north, S BAL CNTY N+W most snow. Snow from 5AM until 7PM occasionally for first event. High 29.
Tuesday Night(1'' maybe 2'' of snow and sleet) S BAL CNTY N+W transitioning to sleet and freezing rain(maybe light sleet accumulation, ice accumulation from 0.10-0.25''. Low 27. Icy Mix 11PM-4AM.
Wednesday(Freezing Rain to Rain) S BAL CNTY N+W, ice accumulation possible, Ice 4AM-7AM, rain 7AM to 1PM, then possible back end snow, snow accumulation possible.
My snow map will be out later possibly.
Tuesday(2-4 local 5'' snows) more north, S BAL CNTY N+W most snow. Snow from 5AM until 7PM occasionally for first event. High 29.
Tuesday Night(1'' maybe 2'' of snow and sleet) S BAL CNTY N+W transitioning to sleet and freezing rain(maybe light sleet accumulation, ice accumulation from 0.10-0.25''. Low 27. Icy Mix 11PM-4AM.
Wednesday(Freezing Rain to Rain) S BAL CNTY N+W, ice accumulation possible, Ice 4AM-7AM, rain 7AM to 1PM, then possible back end snow, snow accumulation possible.
My snow map will be out later possibly.
Alerts
Extended School Closing Warning- Schools are likely to close Tomorrow due to the likelihood of an early start to the snow. The school systems should also close Wednesday due to the icing problems Tomorrow night. Hopefully schools will close and not open at all Tomorrow to avoid an event like the Valentine's Day Massacre 2007.
STAGE 3 ALERT- Significant Winter storm, (for Snow, Sleet, and Ice)
Winter Storm Warning- My statement: Their is the likelighood of accumulating snow and ice for the area which will cause significant problems. This is for all counties in the Watch except for the District of Columbia, and (I will put PG and AA in it, may need to be removed.) There is a distinct possibilty that the models are underdoing the 2-4'' snowfall in the region and overdoing the warm air. I believe the snow and ice will not change to plain rain Baltimore North and West. There is a chance for 4-6'' of snow and sleet in the heaviest bands and over .2'' of ice in the heaviest areas. This will be a 2 pronged event. There is also a chance for back-end snow, more on that later. Expect updates. (3 AM Tuesday-9PM Wednesday)
STAGE 3 ALERT- Significant Winter storm, (for Snow, Sleet, and Ice)
Winter Storm Warning- My statement: Their is the likelighood of accumulating snow and ice for the area which will cause significant problems. This is for all counties in the Watch except for the District of Columbia, and (I will put PG and AA in it, may need to be removed.) There is a distinct possibilty that the models are underdoing the 2-4'' snowfall in the region and overdoing the warm air. I believe the snow and ice will not change to plain rain Baltimore North and West. There is a chance for 4-6'' of snow and sleet in the heaviest bands and over .2'' of ice in the heaviest areas. This will be a 2 pronged event. There is also a chance for back-end snow, more on that later. Expect updates. (3 AM Tuesday-9PM Wednesday)
I put out my Winter Storm Watch from the RFS/DWS
THIS IS NOT FROM THE NWS, this is from my RFS/DWS.
RFS/DWS has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* for snow and ice from Late Monday Night through Wednesday night. This watch includes the District of Columbia and the following counties in MD: Baltimore(N+S), Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, Montgomery, Frederick, Carroll, Harford, Howard, Washington, and Alegany and the independent city of Baltimore.
A primary low will track down through the south bringing snow and ice to the region as early as late Monday night. There is a chance that the snowfall may exceed 4 inches and the ice accumulation may exceed .25 inches. This will indeed be a high impact event and could cause extensive problems as precip will be long lasting. Travel may be made treacherous and during the storm people are advised to stay off the roads. A Winter Storm Watch means that a high impact winter weather event of snow and ice may have a significant accumulation and cause major travel difficulties. Stay tuned for more updates.
RFS/DWS has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* for snow and ice from Late Monday Night through Wednesday night. This watch includes the District of Columbia and the following counties in MD: Baltimore(N+S), Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, Montgomery, Frederick, Carroll, Harford, Howard, Washington, and Alegany and the independent city of Baltimore.
A primary low will track down through the south bringing snow and ice to the region as early as late Monday night. There is a chance that the snowfall may exceed 4 inches and the ice accumulation may exceed .25 inches. This will indeed be a high impact event and could cause extensive problems as precip will be long lasting. Travel may be made treacherous and during the storm people are advised to stay off the roads. A Winter Storm Watch means that a high impact winter weather event of snow and ice may have a significant accumulation and cause major travel difficulties. Stay tuned for more updates.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
It has caught my attention that...
Just something quick that has caught my eye. I believe Baltimore and Dundalk will change to rain, but very briefly. What is weird is that the NWS and TWC along with WeatherBug, Accuweather, and local stations have the area in a wintry forecast. Maybe these organizations have caught onto something that we haven’t and I believe it is possible also that the models are not handling this even if we are this close to a storm. I think you must let the pros do their job and expect what the forecast says giving a bit of wiggle room. Hopefully, for the MD snow lovers, this pans out like the organizations are thinking now. That would be nice for you guys and hey, who doesn’t like snow? (Everyone likes snow, cough cough)
GEFS Ensembles, New Developments
Hmm, 12z GEFS ensembles prove my point. They are slightly south of the OP GFS and colder than it. They are also colder than the ECMWF which runs its 12z model at 1:30. Check it out as it will be very important. Anyways, the GEFS shows, snow-ice-heavy snow. The 850 is north of Baltimore but surface temps seem to support ice rather than rain. I believe the QPF from the Ensembles is tremendous and if we don’t get the rain, but rather ice in the middle, with that QPF, will produce a major ice storm/snow storm. (To sum it up, a big winter storm.)
The Weather channel along with the National Weather service point out wintry pictures for the Baltimore region.
All i can say for Baltimore, early indications are that models are at error a bit, and seem to take the storm too far north. Snow-Mix-Ice-Brief Rain(Maybe, later runs need to be seen)- Back to snow.
Expect a WSWatch from the RFS/DWS and a real WSWatch from the NWS out of BAL/DC tonight or early tomorrow.
Thats all for now, its Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.
The Weather channel along with the National Weather service point out wintry pictures for the Baltimore region.
All i can say for Baltimore, early indications are that models are at error a bit, and seem to take the storm too far north. Snow-Mix-Ice-Brief Rain(Maybe, later runs need to be seen)- Back to snow.
Expect a WSWatch from the RFS/DWS and a real WSWatch from the NWS out of BAL/DC tonight or early tomorrow.
Thats all for now, its Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.
Out to Lunch?
Now, heres the deal, don’t get upset because you think Baltimore is out of the storm now. We’re not, the 12z GFS solution is out to lunch in my opinion because it misplaced the highs. Believe it or not, the 12z has been the most inconsistent run of the GFS lately. As a matter of fact, it had a northern warmer solution yesterday only to have the 18z and 00z along with this mornings 06z looking south and good for us. Point is, I stay in a STAGE 4 ALERT and an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH for the area from Tuesday on and there may be another storm at end of the week. I am issuing a STAGE 1 ALERT for that meaning conditions are favorable and a storm is likely. Details will need to be cleared up.
In the meanwhile, a SIGNIFICANT to MAJOR winter storm could be in the cards for later this week as the 12z GFS has no support and I can bet its ensembles will be south.
In the meanwhile, a SIGNIFICANT to MAJOR winter storm could be in the cards for later this week as the 12z GFS has no support and I can bet its ensembles will be south.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
QUICK CHANGE, BIG STORM COMING, DON'T BE SURE YET THOUGH
Hey guys, time for another update. It’s quick and a fast change. I am just gonna have to go higher once again and upgrade up to a STAGE 4 ALERT and to an EXTENDED SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH as things are really heating up for MD. Check out the 00z GFS runs, wow. The reason for the STAGE 4 ALERT is because a snowfall up to 12`` with other significant winter precip. I will have a scenario out with possibilities later.
DISCUSSION 2 OH BOY
Alright we’re back again with another discussion. This will be a quick one as I have to go out, but here’s the deal. The 12z Euro gives DC a light accumulation while Baltimore gets a moderate one. The model may be going a bit too far north with it, and just keep note that I believe the 00z later at 1:30 tonight will be a bit south of the 12z.
On to the 18z GFS, what an interesting run. It seems to show a moderate-significant snowfall for BWI while DC does ok, with 3-6. The precip should go to sleet then ice with a significant accumulation of mixed precip. Sounds very wintry.
What has caught my attention even more are the 18z GFS 108-114 panels, showing another moderate snow event, with up to 6 additional inches for DC and BAL. This is just a quick model analysis.
Even if the runs aren’t 100% snow now, I see the potential that between Monday and Friday, there may be A MAJOR WINTER STORM with heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, with another event on its heals. The snow could reach 8`` with heavy accumulations of other winter precip. Its just a possibility, and im not speaking of accumulations. I am upgrading to a STAGE 3 ALERT and up to a SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH for TUES-WED-THURS.
I’ll have more, stay tuned.
On to the 18z GFS, what an interesting run. It seems to show a moderate-significant snowfall for BWI while DC does ok, with 3-6. The precip should go to sleet then ice with a significant accumulation of mixed precip. Sounds very wintry.
What has caught my attention even more are the 18z GFS 108-114 panels, showing another moderate snow event, with up to 6 additional inches for DC and BAL. This is just a quick model analysis.
Even if the runs aren’t 100% snow now, I see the potential that between Monday and Friday, there may be A MAJOR WINTER STORM with heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, with another event on its heals. The snow could reach 8`` with heavy accumulations of other winter precip. Its just a possibility, and im not speaking of accumulations. I am upgrading to a STAGE 3 ALERT and up to a SCHOOL CLOSING WATCH for TUES-WED-THURS.
I’ll have more, stay tuned.
Discussion from Yesterday
Forgot, to post it yesterday. When I mention yesterday, that means thursday.
Alright, as you guys know we have two/three shortwaves heading into the region during next week. The models have been trending a bit north and better for many areas. The idea that is presented is that the storm is a cold storm, that moves through a zonal flow and nearly straight across the Continental United States. A few days ago this storm looked good for I-95 and AccuWeather made note of the possibility of a storm with snow and ice with rain to the south of it. Then the models trended into suppression and gave VA south good snows and light snow into Maryland.
Not only was there suppression but there was also the fact that the low was being kept back into the western CONUS. This caused a slower storm and the precip being delayed. The meteorologists up and down the Eastern Seaboard disagreed with the energy being left back in the west and the low closing off near the CA/NV border.
Yesterday, the trend began shifting in the other direction and the cut off low idea has been delayed or even eliminated in the past runs of the GFS, GEFS, and GGEM. The idea now is a more progressive idea taking the storm out of the Rockies traveling over the MW CONUS and heading through the OV and Southern Mid-Atlantic. What I am beginning to see more clearly is that the models will begin to follow the normal winter track, and head more north than currently modeled.
As of now, the impact areas would be MD, DE, and VA but I expect the trend to take things north. Now not as north as other storms have trended, so I think the low will go over Central VA giving MD, DE, and PA snows with DC getting snow but S MD getting mixing with the snow.
What I would like to say is that there is a good potential for a moderate snowfall event with totals over 4+ inches next week throughout the region and due to that I will go into Level 1 Alert Mode. Also, schools may need to be altered, but delay/closings are unsure so I will only issue a Winter School Statement meaning schools may be affected but it is unsure how and the storm is still a bit away. That is all for now, I will keep you posted.
Alright, as you guys know we have two/three shortwaves heading into the region during next week. The models have been trending a bit north and better for many areas. The idea that is presented is that the storm is a cold storm, that moves through a zonal flow and nearly straight across the Continental United States. A few days ago this storm looked good for I-95 and AccuWeather made note of the possibility of a storm with snow and ice with rain to the south of it. Then the models trended into suppression and gave VA south good snows and light snow into Maryland.
Not only was there suppression but there was also the fact that the low was being kept back into the western CONUS. This caused a slower storm and the precip being delayed. The meteorologists up and down the Eastern Seaboard disagreed with the energy being left back in the west and the low closing off near the CA/NV border.
Yesterday, the trend began shifting in the other direction and the cut off low idea has been delayed or even eliminated in the past runs of the GFS, GEFS, and GGEM. The idea now is a more progressive idea taking the storm out of the Rockies traveling over the MW CONUS and heading through the OV and Southern Mid-Atlantic. What I am beginning to see more clearly is that the models will begin to follow the normal winter track, and head more north than currently modeled.
As of now, the impact areas would be MD, DE, and VA but I expect the trend to take things north. Now not as north as other storms have trended, so I think the low will go over Central VA giving MD, DE, and PA snows with DC getting snow but S MD getting mixing with the snow.
What I would like to say is that there is a good potential for a moderate snowfall event with totals over 4+ inches next week throughout the region and due to that I will go into Level 1 Alert Mode. Also, schools may need to be altered, but delay/closings are unsure so I will only issue a Winter School Statement meaning schools may be affected but it is unsure how and the storm is still a bit away. That is all for now, I will keep you posted.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Forecast from Accuweather
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adcbin/netweather_v2/backgrounds/rainbow_630x440_bg.jpg ); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-color: #;' >
Friday, January 9, 2009
New Key from the RFS
RFS Winter Weather Key, Have a seperate Severe summer weather blog.
I went very complex with this, these are my boundaries as for the Central MD area
Winter Storm Watch: 4+ inches out 36 hours
Winter Storm Warning: 4-6 inches+ <24 hours out
Heavy Snow Watch: 8+ Inches 36 hours out
Heavy Snow Warning: 8+ inches <24 hours out
Blizzard Watch: Snow, 25mph+ winds for more than 2 hours reducing visibilities, 36 hours out
Blizzard Warning: Snow, 25+mph winds for more than 2 hours reducing visibilites, <24 hours out
Ground Blizzard Warning: Extreme blowing snow causing low visibilites
Whiteout Warning: Snow falling at 2+ inch rates or blowing slow causing near 0 visibility.
Ice Storm Watch: 0.20 inches+ of ice out 36 hours
Ice Storm Warning: 0.20 inches+ of ice <24 hours out
Sleet Watch: 2+ inches of sleet 36 hours out
Sleet Warning: 2+ inches of sleet <24 hours out
Winter Weather Advisory: Winter weather causing travel delays, not meeting Warning criteria <18 hours out
Snow Advisory OR Blowing Snow Advisory: 1-4 inches of snow/blowing snow <18 hours out
Freezing Rain Advisory: Freezing Rain disrupting travel, up to 0.19 inches of accumulation
Freezing Fog Advisory/Dense Fog Advisory: Frozen Fog causing low visibilities/ or regular fog
doing the same
Lake Effect Snow Advisories/Watches/Warnings: Unlikely, but accumulations from lake effect snow varying.
Ryan Forecasting Statement: Possible Winter Weather Affecting the area
I went very complex with this, these are my boundaries as for the Central MD area
Winter Storm Watch: 4+ inches out 36 hours
Winter Storm Warning: 4-6 inches+ <24 hours out
Heavy Snow Watch: 8+ Inches 36 hours out
Heavy Snow Warning: 8+ inches <24 hours out
Blizzard Watch: Snow, 25mph+ winds for more than 2 hours reducing visibilities, 36 hours out
Blizzard Warning: Snow, 25+mph winds for more than 2 hours reducing visibilites, <24 hours out
Ground Blizzard Warning: Extreme blowing snow causing low visibilites
Whiteout Warning: Snow falling at 2+ inch rates or blowing slow causing near 0 visibility.
Ice Storm Watch: 0.20 inches+ of ice out 36 hours
Ice Storm Warning: 0.20 inches+ of ice <24 hours out
Sleet Watch: 2+ inches of sleet 36 hours out
Sleet Warning: 2+ inches of sleet <24 hours out
Winter Weather Advisory: Winter weather causing travel delays, not meeting Warning criteria <18 hours out
Snow Advisory OR Blowing Snow Advisory: 1-4 inches of snow/blowing snow <18 hours out
Freezing Rain Advisory: Freezing Rain disrupting travel, up to 0.19 inches of accumulation
Freezing Fog Advisory/Dense Fog Advisory: Frozen Fog causing low visibilities/ or regular fog
doing the same
Lake Effect Snow Advisories/Watches/Warnings: Unlikely, but accumulations from lake effect snow varying.
Ryan Forecasting Statement: Possible Winter Weather Affecting the area
Saturday, January 3, 2009
JAN 3 DISCUSSION, hmm.
Hmm, yeah that sums up this January 3rd discussion, it's junior meteorologist Ryan K here with some developments. As many of you know, the models are very unpredictable and for next weeks storm, I see that, and really here are my thoughts about the models.
The ECMWF model has now jumped on the boat of models showing a coastal redevelopment for the secondary system and seems to be trending to a more favorable solution for the area. What I think is interesting is that the NWS AFD has a possible ice storm for Most of central MD including Baltimore City, County even east of 95, well really all counties except southern MD.
Heres the link for that: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off.
I can say that is a viable solution. The 18z GFS this afternoon was like a blowtorch run, and I have put very little stake into that based on the thoughts from the NWS and the HPC. The deal is that a CAD event is very possible in my mind for the DC, MD, PA region and should be closely monitored. What I do expect is at least some wintry precip on the front end for the DC/BAL metro.
On Tuesday very early, I will be heading up to NYC and won't be back until late that evening so don't expect an update on Tuesday.
Basically though, with a SE ridge in place but being blocked by the -NAO and Greenland block. This helps the region and gives us more hope for wintry weather. The previous PV I described is being broken down a bit more than before which is also a good sign. Now I am by no means giving up on this storm.
As a matter of fact here is a post from Matt, a buddy from AccuWeather.com Forums, known as AtownWxWatcher. He found this on Eastern Wx Forums from Tip, a pro met. Here it is:
"I have been of the school all along that while I do believe the -NAO has numbered days here, the ECM's recent runs have been too fast to dismantle the configuration. That said...there may be a nod in the direction of conserving the field a bit longer. That does give some plausibility back to confluence at mid levels over SE Canada; it may be that the ECM is latching onto this idea now that it is crossing into the 4 day lead for the East Coast. Not sure I see the HP up north being weaker in future runs, and believe we need to see that to lift a warm front up the coast in this situation.Timing is also critical here. As the annotations show above, the 24 hours prior to the 96 hour chart, there is a nice cold shot migrating through the upper MA/NE states. This air mass comes in from a snow pack, too. I don't believe this air mass has had sufficient time to modify - certainly not thermodynamically (DPs). I believe the 500mb thickness migration of contours will be miss-leading as to what is taking place in the BL from about N VA on up the coast, on the western side of I-95 (approximately).We'll see how this plays out but we have already had on system up here in New England, where the mid-level centers went bodily west yet we captured primarily a frozen/freezing event out of it... It is not impossible that more ice could be available to the interior MA given this solution trend combined with synoptic awareness."
And this is his map analysis:
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id26093
Thanks Tip, and also, here is a useful link, http://atownwxwatcher.blogspot.com/, it includes no wishcasting and analyzes the patterns.
More regarding this storm later, this is Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.
The ECMWF model has now jumped on the boat of models showing a coastal redevelopment for the secondary system and seems to be trending to a more favorable solution for the area. What I think is interesting is that the NWS AFD has a possible ice storm for Most of central MD including Baltimore City, County even east of 95, well really all counties except southern MD.
Heres the link for that: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off.
I can say that is a viable solution. The 18z GFS this afternoon was like a blowtorch run, and I have put very little stake into that based on the thoughts from the NWS and the HPC. The deal is that a CAD event is very possible in my mind for the DC, MD, PA region and should be closely monitored. What I do expect is at least some wintry precip on the front end for the DC/BAL metro.
On Tuesday very early, I will be heading up to NYC and won't be back until late that evening so don't expect an update on Tuesday.
Basically though, with a SE ridge in place but being blocked by the -NAO and Greenland block. This helps the region and gives us more hope for wintry weather. The previous PV I described is being broken down a bit more than before which is also a good sign. Now I am by no means giving up on this storm.
As a matter of fact here is a post from Matt, a buddy from AccuWeather.com Forums, known as AtownWxWatcher. He found this on Eastern Wx Forums from Tip, a pro met. Here it is:
"I have been of the school all along that while I do believe the -NAO has numbered days here, the ECM's recent runs have been too fast to dismantle the configuration. That said...there may be a nod in the direction of conserving the field a bit longer. That does give some plausibility back to confluence at mid levels over SE Canada; it may be that the ECM is latching onto this idea now that it is crossing into the 4 day lead for the East Coast. Not sure I see the HP up north being weaker in future runs, and believe we need to see that to lift a warm front up the coast in this situation.Timing is also critical here. As the annotations show above, the 24 hours prior to the 96 hour chart, there is a nice cold shot migrating through the upper MA/NE states. This air mass comes in from a snow pack, too. I don't believe this air mass has had sufficient time to modify - certainly not thermodynamically (DPs). I believe the 500mb thickness migration of contours will be miss-leading as to what is taking place in the BL from about N VA on up the coast, on the western side of I-95 (approximately).We'll see how this plays out but we have already had on system up here in New England, where the mid-level centers went bodily west yet we captured primarily a frozen/freezing event out of it... It is not impossible that more ice could be available to the interior MA given this solution trend combined with synoptic awareness."
And this is his map analysis:
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id26093
Thanks Tip, and also, here is a useful link, http://atownwxwatcher.blogspot.com/, it includes no wishcasting and analyzes the patterns.
More regarding this storm later, this is Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.
Friday, January 2, 2009
JAN 2 DISCUSSION (and Model Discussion)
Sorry I've been gone so long, been very bsuy with work and vacation in between and the holidays but now I'm here. It seems as if I will only be able to posts when a storm is coming as I am always trying to find time to post.
But now to the weather.
The snow/rain showers passed through this morning and were reported by a few folks around the region. Some more showers are possible on Sunday moring and/or evening. For those of you, N/W of BAL/DC, you may see some freezing rain and a slight ice buildup for those areas. If the threat materializes more, I will include that in a post.
Now to the possible storm for next week, I was pretty confident in the idea of front end wintry precip and still am however the amount of it is dwindling. The models are showing(most of them) a primary cutting up into the GL. Now for those of you that don't know we have a good teleconnections setup. I will try to maybe post some, doubt it, tight on time, got practice. The deal is with a trending positive PNA in the pacific, and the Negative NAO and AO in the atlantic and east are favoring a good winter storm. This also throws the big bad SE ridge out of the picture. I know the SE ridge is a pain, but not for this one, however, it has brought in some backup.
The deal with today's storm that was supposed to develop a coastal was supression. That was due to an NAO that was too negative. The NAO level was positive causing many GLC's in November. What happened to the storm for today was that the NAO was too much of a good thing taking the storm farther east and developing any secondary far away from the E CONUS.
The NAO is now not as negative but that isn't the problem. But as I said about the SE ridge, it has backup.
A strong PV(Polar Vortex) is near the Gulf of Alaska. You may think, who cares about Alaska. Well it is a big deal. Although you can have big snowstorms in the east with a good block and a good Atlantic, it helps to have a favorable position in the Pacific. The PV is causing the ridge in the west to not gain strength in turn disableing the digging of a nice positive tilted trough in the east. What that means is any secondary that forms along the East Coast from the Primary that will most likely cut up the lakes will develop too far north most likely doing a few of these things to E WV VA, DC, MD, DE, and S PA.
---Dry Slot
---Not have a lot of precip left
---Not bring in enough cold air
---A few other events.
The point is that the models are showing an unfavorable situation for any more than a light accumulation from front end snow here in MD. I know that things can change and who knows what can happen with the inconsistency of the models.
One thing I have noticed is the ECMWF, also known as teh ECM or Euro is showing the west of the apps solution with no coastal redevelopment. With the good block, I can agree with the apps situation, but a coastal would have to redevelop, however with the Euro's track of a primary, a secondary wouldn't form in a favorable position.
There are no models supporting the ECMWF's primary-only situation. Now, the GFS, GEFS, UKMET, GGEM, (and I believe NOGAPS and JMA.) However, this long discussion can be sumed up with the words "We've got 4-5 days, calm down." Things can and will change. What matters is how they change.
The euro is consistent in it's thinking even if it is alone while the GFS varies on EVERY run.
I'll have more, this is Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.
But now to the weather.
The snow/rain showers passed through this morning and were reported by a few folks around the region. Some more showers are possible on Sunday moring and/or evening. For those of you, N/W of BAL/DC, you may see some freezing rain and a slight ice buildup for those areas. If the threat materializes more, I will include that in a post.
Now to the possible storm for next week, I was pretty confident in the idea of front end wintry precip and still am however the amount of it is dwindling. The models are showing(most of them) a primary cutting up into the GL. Now for those of you that don't know we have a good teleconnections setup. I will try to maybe post some, doubt it, tight on time, got practice. The deal is with a trending positive PNA in the pacific, and the Negative NAO and AO in the atlantic and east are favoring a good winter storm. This also throws the big bad SE ridge out of the picture. I know the SE ridge is a pain, but not for this one, however, it has brought in some backup.
The deal with today's storm that was supposed to develop a coastal was supression. That was due to an NAO that was too negative. The NAO level was positive causing many GLC's in November. What happened to the storm for today was that the NAO was too much of a good thing taking the storm farther east and developing any secondary far away from the E CONUS.
The NAO is now not as negative but that isn't the problem. But as I said about the SE ridge, it has backup.
A strong PV(Polar Vortex) is near the Gulf of Alaska. You may think, who cares about Alaska. Well it is a big deal. Although you can have big snowstorms in the east with a good block and a good Atlantic, it helps to have a favorable position in the Pacific. The PV is causing the ridge in the west to not gain strength in turn disableing the digging of a nice positive tilted trough in the east. What that means is any secondary that forms along the East Coast from the Primary that will most likely cut up the lakes will develop too far north most likely doing a few of these things to E WV VA, DC, MD, DE, and S PA.
---Dry Slot
---Not have a lot of precip left
---Not bring in enough cold air
---A few other events.
The point is that the models are showing an unfavorable situation for any more than a light accumulation from front end snow here in MD. I know that things can change and who knows what can happen with the inconsistency of the models.
One thing I have noticed is the ECMWF, also known as teh ECM or Euro is showing the west of the apps solution with no coastal redevelopment. With the good block, I can agree with the apps situation, but a coastal would have to redevelop, however with the Euro's track of a primary, a secondary wouldn't form in a favorable position.
There are no models supporting the ECMWF's primary-only situation. Now, the GFS, GEFS, UKMET, GGEM, (and I believe NOGAPS and JMA.) However, this long discussion can be sumed up with the words "We've got 4-5 days, calm down." Things can and will change. What matters is how they change.
The euro is consistent in it's thinking even if it is alone while the GFS varies on EVERY run.
I'll have more, this is Junior Meteorologist Ryan K.
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