Friday Severe Weather

The SPC has us under a slight risk area for tomorrow and I think the evening hours are the favorable time, for a map visit Nick and I's blog Maryland Wx.

Merger...More Showers and storms.

I have teamed with Nick over at Maryland Wx blog, so the posting will be a bit less for me over here as that is now my top priority.

Now to the post as there are showers and embedded thunderstorms hitting Baltimore and Howard Counties right now. Expect 30mph winds, some lightning and thunder, and up to 0.1'' of rain in this group. I'll have info here and on MDwx tomorrow.

I'm Back and Severe Today

Hey, it's been awhile, had vacations and everything, but its Hurricane Season and Severe Weather Season, so I need to be here. The SPC has us under a slight risk for severe today with a 5% tornado(for us thats impressive), 15% hail, and 15% wind, but 30% around Dundalk and the 95 corridor north of Baltimore. You may be wondering if the sun is going to come out; well it won't today and that will help to somewhat cap the instability with lower temperatures. The CAPE values however still support the development of thunderstorms, and if we get a watch in our area, I expect that it will be a Tornado Watch if the threat remains as high as it is now. If anything breaks, I'll let everyone know.

Good Morning

Hello, there have been many school closings around the area with the snowstorm. I have more than 4 inches at my house and am expecting 7-8 inches. There is a very heavy, nearly blinding band coming in from the west. Reports of 2 inches an hour snowfall at Dulles Airport is now reaching Baltimore and Dundalk.The wind with the snow is creating near blizzard conditions as I expected throughout the area. Also, I received a report of 9 inches in Southern Anne Arundel County. Let the snow continue! :)

Heavy Snow Falling

Just wanted to let everyone know a Winter Storm Warning is in effect now until 2PM Monday. I expect 6-10'' in Baltimore, 8-12'' in Dundalk, and Locally in these areas 15'' is not entirely out of the question. Also, the wind will kick in soon and cause near blizzard/whiteout conditions when combines with the heavy snow. Stay tuned, as this is a Major Winter Storm. Schools will be closed tomorrow, about a 100% chance of that.

Good Morning, WINTER STORM WARNING

Hey, got up early for you guys. The NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING TO REPLACE THE WATCH. It says 4-6 inches in the western suburbs, 6-10 near Baltimore and along I-95 with 12'' possible east of there. Dundalk may see a foot. I have a eerly feeling, hopefully thats all it is. SNOW IS COMING :) :) :) Blizzard Conditions also likely tonight into tomorrow morning. Also, I picked up 0.8'' of snow, its to get you prepared, trust me. The Baroclinic zone setup along with where we get the deformation band will be huge in who sees the highest amounts. Also, the comma head setup looks to hit DC/MD especially hard. I will update later with progress on the storm.

Oh quick note, this may bust high by the NWS, I sure hope thats not the case.

HERE WE GO, STAGE 5 ALERT, GAME ON

Stage 5 alert, up to 13 inches of snow here per 00z runs of GFS and NAM. Local news stations are saying 3-6, Justin Berk is closer w/4-8. I think that I may bust high, so watch out but I now think 8-12'' is likely for Dundalk with upwards of 10 inches in the city itself. Near Blizzard Conditions are also possible tomorrow night. Please Please Please stay tuned. This is a significant winter storm, not just accumulating snow in my mind. Be ready for 6+ inches tomorrow night into Monday. Expect the NWS to upgrade the WSWatch for the Baltimore area, should be updated to a warning when you wake up tomorrow morning or around noon. The point and click forecast for Dundalk is for 4-9'' of snow.

STAGE 4 ALERT

Do't have much time, have soccer game at 9. Got the smallest break in between. Up to 10 inches of snow are possible in areas. I expect 4-7'' in Baltimore, with the Dundalk area getting 5-8''. It is going to be a significant storm. Also, watch out for some wintry mix tonight overnight. The NWS has us under a WSWatch for several inches of snow :)

I will try to have an update, and if I do, it will be no earlier than 10:30. Really sorry I'm so busy. Also, tomorrow night into Monday's storm could produce wind driven snow and towards the end of the storm and after, Blizzard to Ground Blizzard conditions. I am giving that a 20% chance at 4+ inches of snow a 90% chance. DUNDALK is near the bullseye. THIS IS PROBABLY THE ONE. I am excited, and not hyping. Stay tuned folks.

Hey Guys

Check out the HPC update on their website. Sorry I couldn't give a link to it, but it sounds to me the DC-BAL-(Dundalk) corridor may get a big winter storm. I will have dissection on this storm either tonight or tomorrow morning early. I have to attend High School Baseball tryouts at 9AM, soccer at 1PM and another soccer game at 9PM so I am very unsure about posting tomorrow. If this starts to look like more than the 3-4'' I expect now, which it is trending towards 6+'', I will get to you.

Models A Bit Off

As I informed you, the models were printing out all snow, and at my house its a warm 38 degrees. Thats unfavorable for snow obviously. Once a cold front passes, winds switch directionsm and this switch will bring in colder air in. I will put in my forecast rain until 10AM, then rain/snow until 12 maybe 1230PM, and anything left after that as a few rain/snow showers. I disagree with the models giving accumulation due to the warm ground, however, the precip out west looks healthy, so stay tuned and watch as it might accumulate. The most likely areas for accumulation are on grassy areas and shrubbery,

A few things

Good evening, folks. I am back:

18z NAM prints out 0.04'' of precip, equating to all snow, 0.4'' with 10:1 ratios. The storm was further east and is an outlier however by the HPC.

Now the GFS has trended further south with low development starting around Hatteras, I will really need to watch the secondary development. This run prints us out 0.9'' of snow, a little incher. The coastal puts in a bit more precip this run. However, 1.1'' is more likely as the run itself prints out 0.11-0.13'' of precip.

Heres the GOES energy currently: , and that is on line with the GOES run.

Another thing is the current pressure rises and falls, the GL clipper low is weakening and is instead of traveling NE like the models have said, has come to a near stop.

What that does by weakening the low is that the energy is easier to transfer and get going off NC, and develop a bit quicker.

Next up is our steering currents as of 21z:

This image shows the lead and backside vorts. Like what is being discussed in the AW forums, we need a deeper dig of the backside in order to get a GOM moisture connection. That would help the MD area a bit with a slight boost in precip. That would even moreso help areas to our north, who are expecting more of a storm out of this.

Now, on to the Water Vapor. Quick examinations on this show the trough is digging to the south somewhat and to the east and that is what we need for the moisture connection. Also, the digging more would help us set up a negative trough; the earlier the trough goes negative, the earlier the coastal develops.

Here is that WV image: , looks pretty good.

Also, to prove my GFS 0.9'' inches of snow, here is the BUFR soundings for 18z GFS: BWI Airport.


Now, finally, I wanted to post the 18z time frame in which the storm is affecting the region so you can see why I think it is more than 0.09'' of precip as snow, meaning 0.9''. It is the fine version and at 1000-500mb thicknesses, one of the most important layers, and the layer used by AW.com Met HM.


I will have more, and an update after the 00z NAM, even though that model is an outlier. Enjoy your evening, its beautiful out, just dress kinda warm :)

12z ECMWF

Hey guys, the 12z ECMWF is in. I can see us getting up to 4mm of precip, but am not sure. I know 3mm is about 0.11 inches of precip, so that is an up in Euro precip output for us no doubt from the previous runs. Stay tuned, I have to go somewhere from 3-6 though, so I may update and likely will update later this evening.

Little Event

Hey guys, been very, very busy. Expect more posting now though as I have some time opened this week.

The 12z NAM/WRF spits out 0.6'' of snow for the Overnight-Sunday Morning event.

The 12z GFS/AVN spits out 0.6'' of snow, with up to 0.02'' in ice pellets, meaning 0.1'' of those with the 5:1 ratio.

I can see us getting surprised on this one and I am going to give a 12z ECMWF update shortly.

Snow to Rain

Yeah, that looks like the scenario for the GL cutter tomorrow night. I think that the areas around Dundalk will get a 3-4 hour period of wintry precip, amounting to maybe a half inch of slush. However, north of the city, I see about 6 hours of wintry precip, maybe adding up to an inch or a bit more. I will update maybe tomorrow evening, if anything this is trending a bit colder, and any colder, could mean more wintry precip at the start.

Info about the dwindling snow possibilities this weekend also later.

Sorry Guys :(

Been out for awhile.

I will be the first to admit that I was off on my last prediction. I thought the precip initially would stick to the ground on the Tuesday storm. I underestimated how strong the warm air was and that prevented most of the snow from sticking.

However, I liked the little convective band that hit the area Tuesday Night/ Wednesday Morning. At my High School in the Tuesday storm we got 0.5'' snow and the banding gave us 2.4''.

Here is my weather alert for the unfoding pattern which has been posted on the EWx and AccuWx forums, at least Analysis 2: It seems as if the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistently plowing 2 consecutive storm systems from the West Coast eastward possibly having a significant effect on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in terms of winter weather.
As any model watcher would state, the trend this winter has been to take systems northward. But the deal in this new pattern is that the Northern Branch isn’t in full control, and the models have been realizing that. All of you people in Maine and the far west interior of the Northeast shouldn’t really think these are your storms. Also, in the past situations, models have taken a while to see the power of the dominant branch. However, as I said, they seem to be a bit ahead on the pattern this time.
As I look at the 12z ECMWF runs, I can see that the 500mb vort images are hinting at a retrograding 50/50 in a very good position for the possible 16-18 storm. Anyone that has studied past big snowstorms will realize that the retrograding 50/50 was a key factor. Also, in this situation, I see a –NAO, which in a lot of cases in the past has spit out a good snowstorm. I think having a –NAO for a while earlier this winter didn’t help us, may not play as much of a factor as it usually would in my thinking. To continue the positive factors, there is a nice split flow in place. Many of the models have been evident in showing this and I am optimistic on that factor. The split flow should be setting in later next week prior to these storms which is obviously a good thing.
It would seem that there may be one problem. You have the –NAO, split flow, Canadian blocking, then you have the western trough. Most hearing that would somewhat discount the possibilities of major winter events. However, this is being leveled out by the split flow, so I am not worried too much about it.
On the other hand, if the SPLIT FLOW DOESN’T MATERIALIZE, THESE STORMS MAY BE IN TROUBLE due to the western troughing.
Another thing that is also positive is that the ECMWF is looking good ALONG with the GFS in its snowstorm possibilities for the two events. Now model agreement 10 days out and that is what it is and take it for what you wish but the setup is there.

More in the future!